Microsoft Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 251.23

MSFT
 Stock
  

USD 256.83  3.43  1.32%   

Microsoft Corp's future price is the expected price of Microsoft Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Microsoft Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Microsoft Corp Price to Book Value is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Microsoft Corp reported Price to Book Value of 16.53 in 2021. Price to Sales Ratio is likely to gain to 15.09 in 2022, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop 34.11 in 2022.
  
Refresh
Microsoft Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Microsoft Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Microsoft Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Microsoft Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-01 CALL at $257.5 is a CALL option contract on Microsoft Corp's common stock with a strick price of 257.5 expiring on 2022-07-01. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-30 at 15:59:57 for $1.88 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.73, and an ask price of $2.26. The implied volatility as of the 1st of July is 40.911. View All Microsoft options

Closest to current price Microsoft long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Microsoft Corp Backtesting, Microsoft Corp Valuation, Microsoft Corp Correlation, Microsoft Corp Hype Analysis, Microsoft Corp Volatility, Microsoft Corp History as well as Microsoft Corp Performance. Please specify Microsoft Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Microsoft Corp odds to be computed.
Apply Odds

Microsoft Corp Target Price Odds to finish below 251.23

The tendency of Microsoft Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 251.23  or more in 90 days
 256.83 90 days 251.23  about 11.45
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Microsoft Corp to drop to $ 251.23  or more in 90 days from now is about 11.45 (This Microsoft Corp probability density function shows the probability of Microsoft Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Microsoft Corp price to stay between $ 251.23  and its current price of $256.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.94 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.41 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Microsoft Corp will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0048, implying that it can generate a 0.004773 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Microsoft Corp Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Microsoft Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Microsoft Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
310.76313.13315.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
299.05301.42344.44
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
257.71260.08262.45
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
236.60355.32410.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microsoft Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microsoft Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microsoft Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Microsoft Corp.

Microsoft Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Microsoft Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Microsoft Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Microsoft Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Microsoft Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.004773
β
Beta against DOW1.41
σ
Overall volatility
18.59
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Microsoft Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Microsoft Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Microsoft Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Microsoft Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Microsoft Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Microsoft Stock Bullish View Vs. Bearish View - Seeking Alpha

Microsoft Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Microsoft Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Microsoft Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microsoft Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.55%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.30
Short Percent Of Float0.55%
Float Shares7.47B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day32.41M
Shares Short Prior Month36.81M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month32.33M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.87%

Microsoft Corp Technical Analysis

Microsoft Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Microsoft Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Microsoft Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Microsoft Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Microsoft Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Microsoft Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Microsoft Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Microsoft Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Microsoft Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Microsoft Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Microsoft Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Microsoft Corp Alerts

Microsoft Corp Alerts and Suggestions

Microsoft Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Microsoft Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Microsoft Stock Bullish View Vs. Bearish View - Seeking Alpha
Additionally, see Microsoft Corp Backtesting, Microsoft Corp Valuation, Microsoft Corp Correlation, Microsoft Corp Hype Analysis, Microsoft Corp Volatility, Microsoft Corp History as well as Microsoft Corp Performance. Note that the Microsoft Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis

When running Microsoft Corp price analysis, check to measure Microsoft Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Go
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Go
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Go
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Go
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Go
Is Microsoft Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microsoft Corp. If investors know Microsoft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microsoft Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.094
Market Capitalization
1920.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.18
Return On Assets
0.16
Return On Equity
0.49
The market value of Microsoft Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Microsoft Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.