Moderna Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 125.46

MRNA
 Stock
  

USD 158.27  2.73  1.76%   

Moderna's future price is the expected price of Moderna instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Moderna performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 8.49. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 9.04.
  
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Moderna's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Moderna. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Moderna based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Moderna over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-08 CALL at $157.5 is a CALL option contract on Moderna's common stock with a strick price of 157.5 expiring on 2022-07-08. The contract was last traded on 2022-07-05 at 15:58:00 for $3.5 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.2, and an ask price of $3.55. The implied volatility as of the 6th of July is 77.784. View All Moderna options

Closest to current price Moderna long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Moderna Backtesting, Moderna Valuation, Moderna Correlation, Moderna Hype Analysis, Moderna Volatility, Moderna History as well as Moderna Performance. Please specify Moderna time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Moderna odds to be computed.
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Moderna Target Price Odds to finish over 125.46

The tendency of Moderna Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 125.46  in 90 days
 158.27 90 days 125.46  about 92.08
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Moderna to stay above $ 125.46  in 90 days from now is about 92.08 (This Moderna probability density function shows the probability of Moderna Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Moderna price to stay between $ 125.46  and its current price of $158.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 77.71 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.83 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Moderna will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2604, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Moderna Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Moderna

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moderna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moderna's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moderna in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
152.62156.95161.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
141.22196.87201.20
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
86.00257.23506.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (10)
LowProjected EPSHigh
22.2526.3228.11
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moderna. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moderna's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moderna's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moderna.

Moderna Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Moderna is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Moderna's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Moderna, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Moderna within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.26
β
Beta against DOW1.83
σ
Overall volatility
13.26
Ir
Information ratio 0.023003

Moderna Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Moderna for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Moderna can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Moderna has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Moderna has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Bancel Stephane of 40000 shares of Moderna subject to Rule 16b-3

Moderna Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Moderna Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Moderna's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moderna's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.88%
Short Percent Of Float5.20%
Float Shares365.3M
Shares Short Prior Month16.21M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day5.37M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month5.94M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Moderna Technical Analysis

Moderna's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Moderna Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Moderna. In general, you should focus on analyzing Moderna Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Moderna Predictive Forecast Models

Moderna time-series forecasting models is one of many Moderna's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Moderna's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Moderna

Checking the ongoing alerts about Moderna for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Moderna help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Moderna Alerts

Moderna Alerts and Suggestions

Moderna has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Moderna has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Bancel Stephane of 40000 shares of Moderna subject to Rule 16b-3
Additionally, see Moderna Backtesting, Moderna Valuation, Moderna Correlation, Moderna Hype Analysis, Moderna Volatility, Moderna History as well as Moderna Performance. Note that the Moderna information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moderna's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

Complementary Tools for Moderna Stock analysis

When running Moderna price analysis, check to measure Moderna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moderna is operating at the current time. Most of Moderna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moderna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moderna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moderna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Moderna's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moderna. If investors know Moderna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moderna listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.02
Market Capitalization
61.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
2.13
Return On Assets
0.5
Return On Equity
1.4
The market value of Moderna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moderna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moderna's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moderna's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moderna's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moderna's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moderna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moderna value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moderna's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.