Merck Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 90.88

MRK
 Stock
  

USD 91.17  1.34  1.45%   

Merck's future price is the expected price of Merck instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Merck Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Book Value is estimated to increase to 5.41. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to 15.24.
  
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Merck's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Merck Company. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Merck based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Merck Company over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-01 CALL at $91.0 is a CALL option contract on Merck's common stock with a strick price of 91.0 expiring on 2022-07-01. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-30 at 15:50:32 for $0.86 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.44, and an ask price of $0.89. The implied volatility as of the 1st of July is 40.6789. View All Merck options

Closest to current price Merck long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Merck Backtesting, Merck Valuation, Merck Correlation, Merck Hype Analysis, Merck Volatility, Merck History as well as Merck Performance. Please specify Merck time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Merck odds to be computed.
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Merck Target Price Odds to finish over 90.88

The tendency of Merck Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 90.88  in 90 days
 91.17 90 days 90.88  about 18.08
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merck to stay above $ 90.88  in 90 days from now is about 18.08 (This Merck Company probability density function shows the probability of Merck Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merck Company price to stay between $ 90.88  and its current price of $91.17 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.07 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Merck has a beta of 0.5. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Merck average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Merck Company will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2831, implying that it can generate a 0.28 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Merck Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Merck

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merck's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Merck in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
89.7591.1892.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
82.0598.5199.94
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
96.7598.1899.60
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0090.88110.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merck. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merck's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merck's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Merck Company.

Merck Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merck is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merck's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merck Company, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merck within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.28
β
Beta against DOW0.50
σ
Overall volatility
3.54
Ir
Information ratio 0.27

Merck Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merck for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merck Company can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merck Company was previously known as MERCK INC and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol MRK.
Merck Company has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.investors.com: Dow Jones Dives After Key Inflation Report - Investors Business Daily

Merck Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merck Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merck's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merck's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.67%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.56
Short Percent Of Float0.67%
Float Shares2.52B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day15.51M
Shares Short Prior Month16.86M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month12.41M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.77%

Merck Technical Analysis

Merck's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merck Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merck Company. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merck Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Merck Predictive Forecast Models

Merck time-series forecasting models is one of many Merck's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Merck's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Merck Company

Checking the ongoing alerts about Merck for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merck Company help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Merck Alerts

Merck Alerts and Suggestions

Merck Company was previously known as MERCK INC and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol MRK.
Merck Company has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.investors.com: Dow Jones Dives After Key Inflation Report - Investors Business Daily
Additionally, see Merck Backtesting, Merck Valuation, Merck Correlation, Merck Hype Analysis, Merck Volatility, Merck History as well as Merck Performance. Note that the Merck Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Merck's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for Merck Stock analysis

When running Merck Company price analysis, check to measure Merck's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck is operating at the current time. Most of Merck's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Merck's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merck. If investors know Merck will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merck listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Merck Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merck's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merck's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merck's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merck's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merck value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.