Moog Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 88.74

MOG-A
 Stock
  

USD 88.74  0.17  0.19%   

Moog's future price is the expected price of Moog instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Moog Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Additionally, see Moog Backtesting, Moog Valuation, Moog Correlation, Moog Hype Analysis, Moog Volatility, Moog History as well as Moog Performance. Please specify Moog time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Moog odds to be computed.

Moog Target Price Odds to finish over 88.74

The tendency of Moog Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 88.74 90 days 88.74 
nearly 4.39
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Moog to move above the current price in 90 days from now is nearly 4.39 (This Moog Inc probability density function shows the probability of Moog Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.17 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Moog will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0311, implying that it can generate a 0.0311 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Moog Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Moog

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moog Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moog's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moog in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
87.2589.1190.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
82.3684.2297.61
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
89.0590.9092.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
85.3487.0388.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moog. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moog's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moog's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moog Inc.

Moog Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Moog is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Moog's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Moog Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Moog within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.031126
β
Beta against DOW1.17
σ
Overall volatility
5.59
Ir
Information ratio 0.01919

Moog Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Moog for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Moog Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Moog Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Moog Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Moog's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moog's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.35%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.75
Short Percent Of Float3.71%
Float Shares29.43M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day86.62k
Shares Short Prior Month632.06k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month127.42k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.86%

Moog Technical Analysis

Moog's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Moog Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Moog Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Moog Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Moog Predictive Forecast Models

Moog time-series forecasting models is one of many Moog's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Moog's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Moog Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Moog for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Moog Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Additionally, see Moog Backtesting, Moog Valuation, Moog Correlation, Moog Hype Analysis, Moog Volatility, Moog History as well as Moog Performance. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Moog Inc price analysis, check to measure Moog's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moog is operating at the current time. Most of Moog's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moog's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moog's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moog to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Moog's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moog value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moog's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.