Magellan Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 94.99

Magellan Health's future price is the expected price of Magellan Health instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Magellan Health performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Magellan Health Price to Book Value is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current Price to Book Value is estimated at 1.14. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 6.46 this year, although the value of Price to Sales Ratio will most likely fall to 0.39.
  
Magellan Health's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Magellan Health. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Magellan Health based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Magellan Health over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $85.0 is a CALL option contract on Magellan Health's common stock with a strick price of 85.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 14 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $7.5, and an ask price of $10.2. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of December is 6.0531. View All Magellan options

Closest to current price Magellan long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Correlation Analysis.Please specify Magellan Health time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Magellan Health odds to be computed.

Magellan Health Target Price Odds to finish below 94.99

The tendency of Magellan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 94.99  after 90 days
 0.00 90 days 94.99 
more than 94.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Magellan Health to stay under $ 94.99  after 90 days from now is more than 94.0 (This Magellan Health probability density function shows the probability of Magellan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Magellan Health price to stay between its current price of $ 0.00  and $ 94.99  at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Magellan Health has a beta of -0.0132. This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Magellan Health are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Magellan Health is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Magellan Health is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Magellan Health Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Magellan Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magellan Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Magellan Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Magellan Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.1923.7523.75
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
95.0095.0095.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Magellan Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Magellan Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Magellan Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Magellan Health.

Magellan Health Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Magellan Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Magellan Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Magellan Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Magellan Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.0034
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.01
σ
Overall volatility
0.18
Ir
Information ratio -0.75

Magellan Health Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Magellan Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Magellan Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Magellan Health is not currently marked as verified by its exchange. Report It!

Magellan Health Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Magellan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Magellan Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Magellan Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.40%
Short Percent Of Float5.71%
Float Shares23.55M
Shares Short Prior Month1.53M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day189.55k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month138.47k
Date Short Interest15th of December 2021

Magellan Health Technical Analysis

Magellan Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Magellan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Magellan Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Magellan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Magellan Health Predictive Forecast Models

Magellan Health time-series forecasting models is one of many Magellan Health's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Magellan Health's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Magellan Health

Checking the ongoing alerts about Magellan Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Magellan Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Magellan Health is not currently marked as verified by its exchange. Report It!
Additionally, see Correlation Analysis. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

Other Tools for Magellan Stock

When running Magellan Health price analysis, check to measure Magellan Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Magellan Health is operating at the current time. Most of Magellan Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Magellan Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Magellan Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Magellan Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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