Micro Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.49

MFGP
 Stock
  

USD 3.49  0.05  1.45%   

Micro Focus' future price is the expected price of Micro Focus instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Micro Focus Intl performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 7th of August 2022, Price to Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 0.60, while Price to Book Value is likely to drop 0.52.
  
Micro Focus' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Micro Focus Intl. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Micro Focus based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Micro Focus Intl over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Micro Focus' common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 12 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.25, and an ask price of $1.65. The implied volatility as of the 7th of August is 486.1822. View All Micro options

Closest to current price Micro long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Micro Focus Backtesting, Micro Focus Valuation, Micro Focus Correlation, Micro Focus Hype Analysis, Micro Focus Volatility, Micro Focus History as well as Micro Focus Performance. Please specify Micro Focus time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Micro Focus odds to be computed.

Micro Focus Target Price Odds to finish over 3.49

The tendency of Micro Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 3.49 90 days 3.49 
about 76.69
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Micro Focus to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 76.69 (This Micro Focus Intl probability density function shows the probability of Micro Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.7 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Micro Focus will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Micro Focus Intl is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Micro Focus Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Micro Focus

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Micro Focus Intl. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Micro Focus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Micro Focus in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.173.486.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.173.356.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.063.226.71
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.363.453.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Micro Focus. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Micro Focus' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Micro Focus' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Micro Focus Intl.

Micro Focus Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Micro Focus is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Micro Focus' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Micro Focus Intl, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Micro Focus within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.4
β
Beta against DOW1.70
σ
Overall volatility
0.59
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

Micro Focus Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Micro Focus for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Micro Focus Intl can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Micro Focus Intl generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Micro Focus Intl has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Micro Focus Intl has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 4.25 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.6, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Micro Focus Intl has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Micro Focus until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Micro Focus' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Micro Focus Intl sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Micro to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Micro Focus' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 2.74 B. Net Loss for the year was (244.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.13 B.
Micro Focus Intl has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 5th of August 2022 Micro Focus paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.prnewswire.com: Global Big Data Analytics in Education Market to Hit 36.12 Billion by 2027 - PR Newswire

Micro Focus Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Micro Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Micro Focus' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Micro Focus' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.46%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.24
Float Shares301.73M
Shares Short Prior Month1.19M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day341.13k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month414.72k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield7.21%

Micro Focus Technical Analysis

Micro Focus' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Micro Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Micro Focus Intl. In general, you should focus on analyzing Micro Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Micro Focus Predictive Forecast Models

Micro Focus time-series forecasting models is one of many Micro Focus' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Micro Focus' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Micro Focus Intl

Checking the ongoing alerts about Micro Focus for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Micro Focus Intl help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Micro Focus Alerts

Micro Focus Alerts and Suggestions

Micro Focus Intl generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Micro Focus Intl has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Micro Focus Intl has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 4.25 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.6, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Micro Focus Intl has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Micro Focus until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Micro Focus' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Micro Focus Intl sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Micro to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Micro Focus' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 2.74 B. Net Loss for the year was (244.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.13 B.
Micro Focus Intl has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 5th of August 2022 Micro Focus paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.prnewswire.com: Global Big Data Analytics in Education Market to Hit 36.12 Billion by 2027 - PR Newswire
Additionally, see Micro Focus Backtesting, Micro Focus Valuation, Micro Focus Correlation, Micro Focus Hype Analysis, Micro Focus Volatility, Micro Focus History as well as Micro Focus Performance. Note that the Micro Focus Intl information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Micro Focus' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

Complementary Tools for Micro Stock analysis

When running Micro Focus Intl price analysis, check to measure Micro Focus' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Micro Focus is operating at the current time. Most of Micro Focus' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Micro Focus' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Micro Focus' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Micro Focus to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Micro Focus' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Micro Focus. If investors know Micro will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Micro Focus listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.45
Market Capitalization
1.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.11
Return On Assets
-9.0E-4
Return On Equity
-0.0855
The market value of Micro Focus Intl is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Micro that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Micro Focus' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Micro Focus' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Micro Focus' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Micro Focus' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Micro Focus' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Micro Focus value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Micro Focus' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.