Merger Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 17.63

MERFX
 Fund
  

USD 17.31  0.04  0.23%   

Merger Fund's future price is the expected price of Merger Fund instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Merger Fund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Additionally, see Merger Fund Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Merger Fund Correlation, Merger Fund Hype Analysis, Merger Fund Volatility, Merger Fund History as well as Merger Fund Performance. Please specify Merger Fund time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Merger Fund odds to be computed.

Merger Fund Target Price Odds to finish over 17.63

The tendency of Merger Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 17.63  or more in 90 days
 17.31 90 days 17.63 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merger Fund to move over $ 17.63  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Merger Fund probability density function shows the probability of Merger Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merger Fund price to stay between its current price of $ 17.31  and $ 17.63  at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.23 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Merger Fund has a beta of 0.094. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Merger Fund average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Merger Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0237, implying that it can generate a 0.0237 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Merger Fund Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Merger Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merger Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merger Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Merger Fund in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
17.1517.3117.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
17.1417.3017.46
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
17.1517.3117.46
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.2917.3217.34
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merger Fund. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merger Fund's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merger Fund's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Merger Fund.

Merger Fund Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merger Fund is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merger Fund's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merger Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merger Fund within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.023673
β
Beta against DOW0.09
σ
Overall volatility
0.14
Ir
Information ratio 0.58

Merger Fund Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merger Fund for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merger Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merger Fund is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund maintains about 25.53% of its assets in cash

Merger Fund Technical Analysis

Merger Fund's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merger Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merger Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merger Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Merger Fund Predictive Forecast Models

Merger Fund time-series forecasting models is one of many Merger Fund's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Merger Fund's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Merger Fund

Checking the ongoing alerts about Merger Fund for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merger Fund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Merger Fund Alerts

Merger Fund Alerts and Suggestions

Merger Fund is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund maintains about 25.53% of its assets in cash
Additionally, see Merger Fund Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Merger Fund Correlation, Merger Fund Hype Analysis, Merger Fund Volatility, Merger Fund History as well as Merger Fund Performance. Note that the Merger Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Merger Fund's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for Merger Mutual Fund analysis

When running Merger Fund price analysis, check to measure Merger Fund's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merger Fund is operating at the current time. Most of Merger Fund's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merger Fund's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merger Fund's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merger Fund to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Merger Fund's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merger Fund value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merger Fund's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.