Mercadolibre Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1250.0

MELI -  USA Stock  

USD 739.46  40.82  5.84%

Mercadolibre's future price is the expected price of Mercadolibre instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mercadolibre performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Mercadolibre Price to Earnings Ratio are most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Price to Earnings Ratio was reported at 807.42. The current Price to Sales Ratio is estimated to increase to 11.33, while Price to Book Value is projected to decrease to 37.61.
  
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Mercadolibre's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Mercadolibre. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Mercadolibre based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Mercadolibre over a specific time period. For example, 2022-06-24 CALL at $740.0 is a CALL option contract on Mercadolibre's common stock with a strick price of 740.0 expiring on 2022-06-24. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-23 at 15:58:05 for $1.3 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.6, and an ask price of $3.5. The implied volatility as of the 25th of June is 82.1215. View All Mercadolibre options

Closest to current price Mercadolibre long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Mercadolibre Backtesting, Mercadolibre Valuation, Mercadolibre Correlation, Mercadolibre Hype Analysis, Mercadolibre Volatility, Mercadolibre History as well as Mercadolibre Performance. Please specify Mercadolibre time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Mercadolibre odds to be computed.
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Mercadolibre Target Price Odds to finish over 1250.0

The tendency of Mercadolibre Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 1,250  or more in 90 days
 739.46 90 days 1,250  about 5.54
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mercadolibre to move over $ 1,250  or more in 90 days from now is about 5.54 (This Mercadolibre probability density function shows the probability of Mercadolibre Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mercadolibre price to stay between its current price of $ 739.46  and $ 1,250  at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.41 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.82 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Mercadolibre will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Mercadolibre is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Mercadolibre Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Mercadolibre

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercadolibre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercadolibre's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mercadolibre in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
665.51766.09771.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
665.511,0421,048
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
636.04641.80647.57
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
1,2501,9782,250
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mercadolibre. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mercadolibre's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mercadolibre's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Mercadolibre.

Mercadolibre Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mercadolibre is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mercadolibre's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mercadolibre, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mercadolibre within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.17
β
Beta against DOW2.82
σ
Overall volatility
203.54
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Mercadolibre Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mercadolibre for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mercadolibre can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mercadolibre generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Mercadolibre has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Mercadolibre is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 87.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Sanders Richard A of tradable shares of Mercadolibre subject to Rule 16b-3

Mercadolibre Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mercadolibre Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mercadolibre's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercadolibre's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.82%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.15
Short Percent Of Float1.98%
Float Shares46.38M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day792.63k
Shares Short Prior Month1.15M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month629.42k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.02%

Mercadolibre Technical Analysis

Mercadolibre's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mercadolibre Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mercadolibre. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mercadolibre Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mercadolibre Predictive Forecast Models

Mercadolibre time-series forecasting models is one of many Mercadolibre's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Mercadolibre's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Mercadolibre

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mercadolibre for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mercadolibre help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Mercadolibre Alerts

Mercadolibre Alerts and Suggestions

Mercadolibre generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Mercadolibre has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Mercadolibre is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 87.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Sanders Richard A of tradable shares of Mercadolibre subject to Rule 16b-3
Additionally, see Mercadolibre Backtesting, Mercadolibre Valuation, Mercadolibre Correlation, Mercadolibre Hype Analysis, Mercadolibre Volatility, Mercadolibre History as well as Mercadolibre Performance. Note that the Mercadolibre information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mercadolibre's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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When running Mercadolibre price analysis, check to measure Mercadolibre's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercadolibre is operating at the current time. Most of Mercadolibre's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercadolibre's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercadolibre's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercadolibre to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mercadolibre's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mercadolibre. If investors know Mercadolibre will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mercadolibre listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
5.86
Market Capitalization
35.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.63
Return On Assets
0.0383
Return On Equity
0.23
The market value of Mercadolibre is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mercadolibre that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mercadolibre's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mercadolibre's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mercadolibre's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mercadolibre's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mercadolibre's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Mercadolibre value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mercadolibre's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.