Moleculin Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.51

MBRX
 Stock
  

USD 1.47  0.02  1.38%   

Moleculin Biotech's future price is the expected price of Moleculin Biotech instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Moleculin Biotech CS performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Moleculin Biotech Price to Book Value is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Moleculin Biotech reported Price to Book Value of 0.67 in 2021. Price to Sales Ratio is likely to rise to 5.88 in 2022, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (3.40)  in 2022.
  
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Additionally, see Moleculin Biotech Backtesting, Moleculin Biotech Valuation, Moleculin Biotech Correlation, Moleculin Biotech Hype Analysis, Moleculin Biotech Volatility, Moleculin Biotech History as well as Moleculin Biotech Performance. Please specify Moleculin Biotech time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Moleculin Biotech odds to be computed.
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Moleculin Biotech Target Price Odds to finish over 1.51

The tendency of Moleculin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 1.51  or more in 90 days
 1.47 90 days 1.51  about 58.99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Moleculin Biotech to move over $ 1.51  or more in 90 days from now is about 58.99 (This Moleculin Biotech CS probability density function shows the probability of Moleculin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Moleculin Biotech price to stay between its current price of $ 1.47  and $ 1.51  at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.89 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.01 . This indicates Moleculin Biotech CS market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Moleculin Biotech is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0389, implying that it can generate a 0.0389 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Moleculin Biotech Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Moleculin Biotech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moleculin Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moleculin Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Moleculin Biotech in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.071.485.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.325.789.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.031411.575.47
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0019.0029.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moleculin Biotech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moleculin Biotech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moleculin Biotech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Moleculin Biotech.

Moleculin Biotech Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Moleculin Biotech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Moleculin Biotech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Moleculin Biotech CS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Moleculin Biotech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.038869
β
Beta against DOW1.01
σ
Overall volatility
0.22
Ir
Information ratio 0.009495

Moleculin Biotech Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Moleculin Biotech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Moleculin Biotech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Moleculin Biotech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Moleculin Biotech may become a speculative penny stock
Moleculin Biotech has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Net Loss for the year was (15.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0.
Moleculin Biotech CS currently holds about 70.9 M in cash with (18.95 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.48, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Moleculin Biotech has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Yan Joy of 15000 shares of Moleculin Biotech subject to Rule 16b-3

Moleculin Biotech Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Moleculin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Moleculin Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moleculin Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.05%
Short Percent Of Float1.08%
Float Shares27.96M
Shares Short Prior Month415.85k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day41.64k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month71.84k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Moleculin Biotech Technical Analysis

Moleculin Biotech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Moleculin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Moleculin Biotech CS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Moleculin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Moleculin Biotech Predictive Forecast Models

Moleculin Biotech time-series forecasting models is one of many Moleculin Biotech's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Moleculin Biotech's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Moleculin Biotech

Checking the ongoing alerts about Moleculin Biotech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Moleculin Biotech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Moleculin Biotech Alerts

Moleculin Biotech Alerts and Suggestions

Moleculin Biotech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Moleculin Biotech may become a speculative penny stock
Moleculin Biotech has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Net Loss for the year was (15.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0.
Moleculin Biotech CS currently holds about 70.9 M in cash with (18.95 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.48, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Moleculin Biotech has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Yan Joy of 15000 shares of Moleculin Biotech subject to Rule 16b-3
Additionally, see Moleculin Biotech Backtesting, Moleculin Biotech Valuation, Moleculin Biotech Correlation, Moleculin Biotech Hype Analysis, Moleculin Biotech Volatility, Moleculin Biotech History as well as Moleculin Biotech Performance. Note that the Moleculin Biotech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moleculin Biotech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

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When running Moleculin Biotech price analysis, check to measure Moleculin Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moleculin Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Moleculin Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moleculin Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moleculin Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moleculin Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Moleculin Biotech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moleculin Biotech. If investors know Moleculin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moleculin Biotech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
41.2 M
Return On Assets
-0.17
Return On Equity
-0.23
The market value of Moleculin Biotech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moleculin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moleculin Biotech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moleculin Biotech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moleculin Biotech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moleculin Biotech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moleculin Biotech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Moleculin Biotech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moleculin Biotech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.