Merchants Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 23.56

MBIN
 Stock
  

USD 23.37  0.23  0.99%   

Merchants Bancorp's future price is the expected price of Merchants Bancorp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Merchants Bancorp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 6.67 this year, although Price to Book Value will most likely fall to 1.12.
  
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Additionally, see Merchants Bancorp Backtesting, Merchants Bancorp Valuation, Merchants Bancorp Correlation, Merchants Bancorp Hype Analysis, Merchants Bancorp Volatility, Merchants Bancorp History as well as Merchants Bancorp Performance. Please specify Merchants Bancorp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Merchants Bancorp odds to be computed.
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Merchants Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish over 23.56

The tendency of Merchants Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 23.56  or more in 90 days
 23.37 90 days 23.56  about 71.89
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merchants Bancorp to move over $ 23.56  or more in 90 days from now is about 71.89 (This Merchants Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Merchants Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merchants Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 23.37  and $ 23.56  at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Merchants Bancorp has a beta of 0.92. This indicates Merchants Bancorp market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Merchants Bancorp is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Merchants Bancorp is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Merchants Bancorp Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Merchants Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merchants Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merchants Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Merchants Bancorp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
21.4623.3725.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20.9530.6932.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
22.5324.4426.34
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
47.0052.3355.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merchants Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merchants Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merchants Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Merchants Bancorp.

Merchants Bancorp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merchants Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merchants Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merchants Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merchants Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.14
β
Beta against DOW0.92
σ
Overall volatility
1.57
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Merchants Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merchants Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merchants Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merchants Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Merchants Bancorp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Merchants Bancorp currently holds about 416.32 M in cash with (54.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.62.
Merchants Bancorp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Merchants Bancorp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merchants Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merchants Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merchants Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.83%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.35
Short Percent Of Float2.30%
Float Shares25.73M
Shares Short Prior Month163.56k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day111.33k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month81.94k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.56%

Merchants Bancorp Technical Analysis

Merchants Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merchants Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merchants Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merchants Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Merchants Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models

Merchants Bancorp time-series forecasting models is one of many Merchants Bancorp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Merchants Bancorp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Merchants Bancorp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Merchants Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merchants Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Merchants Bancorp Alerts

Merchants Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions

Merchants Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Merchants Bancorp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Merchants Bancorp currently holds about 416.32 M in cash with (54.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.62.
Merchants Bancorp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Additionally, see Merchants Bancorp Backtesting, Merchants Bancorp Valuation, Merchants Bancorp Correlation, Merchants Bancorp Hype Analysis, Merchants Bancorp Volatility, Merchants Bancorp History as well as Merchants Bancorp Performance. Note that the Merchants Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Merchants Bancorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Merchants Stock analysis

When running Merchants Bancorp price analysis, check to measure Merchants Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merchants Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Merchants Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merchants Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merchants Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merchants Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Merchants Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merchants Bancorp. If investors know Merchants will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merchants Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.24
Market Capitalization
B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.14
Return On Assets
0.0222
Return On Equity
0.2
The market value of Merchants Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merchants that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merchants Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merchants Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merchants Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merchants Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merchants Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merchants Bancorp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merchants Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.