Mediaalpha Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.72

MAX
 Stock
  

USD 11.47  0.57  4.73%   

Mediaalpha Inc's future price is the expected price of Mediaalpha Inc instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mediaalpha Inc Cl performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Mediaalpha Inc's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Mediaalpha Inc Cl. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Mediaalpha Inc based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Mediaalpha Inc Cl over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Mediaalpha Inc's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-10-27 at 14:22:25 for $0.65 and, as of today, has 18 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.1, and an ask price of $1.15. The implied volatility as of the 28th of November is 72.0646. View All Mediaalpha options

Closest to current price Mediaalpha long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Mediaalpha Inc Backtesting, Mediaalpha Inc Valuation, Mediaalpha Inc Correlation, Mediaalpha Inc Hype Analysis, Mediaalpha Inc Volatility, Mediaalpha Inc History as well as Mediaalpha Inc Performance. Please specify Mediaalpha Inc time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Mediaalpha Inc odds to be computed.

Mediaalpha Inc Target Price Odds to finish below 4.72

The tendency of Mediaalpha Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 4.72  or more in 90 days
 11.47 90 days 4.72 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mediaalpha Inc to drop to $ 4.72  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mediaalpha Inc Cl probability density function shows the probability of Mediaalpha Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mediaalpha Inc price to stay between $ 4.72  and its current price of $11.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.16 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.37 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Mediaalpha Inc will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4791, implying that it can generate a 0.48 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Mediaalpha Inc Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mediaalpha Inc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mediaalpha Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mediaalpha Inc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mediaalpha Inc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.0612.0116.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.3218.3623.31
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
5.039.9814.93
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.0039.0070.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mediaalpha Inc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mediaalpha Inc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mediaalpha Inc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Mediaalpha Inc.

Mediaalpha Inc Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mediaalpha Inc is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mediaalpha Inc's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mediaalpha Inc Cl, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mediaalpha Inc within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.48
β
Beta against DOW1.37
σ
Overall volatility
2.04
Ir
Information ratio 0.10

Mediaalpha Inc Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mediaalpha Inc for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mediaalpha Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mediaalpha Inc appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Mediaalpha Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 560.38 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (21.57 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 101.52 M.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Steven Yi of 18294 shares of Mediaalpha Inc subject to Rule 16b-3

Mediaalpha Inc Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mediaalpha Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mediaalpha Inc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mediaalpha Inc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.39%
Short Percent Of Float8.11%
Float Shares17.91M
Shares Short Prior Month1.15M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day313.28k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month241.98k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022

Mediaalpha Inc Technical Analysis

Mediaalpha Inc's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mediaalpha Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mediaalpha Inc Cl. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mediaalpha Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mediaalpha Inc Predictive Forecast Models

Mediaalpha Inc time-series forecasting models is one of many Mediaalpha Inc's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Mediaalpha Inc's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Mediaalpha Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mediaalpha Inc for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mediaalpha Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mediaalpha Inc appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Mediaalpha Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 560.38 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (21.57 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 101.52 M.
Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Steven Yi of 18294 shares of Mediaalpha Inc subject to Rule 16b-3
Additionally, see Mediaalpha Inc Backtesting, Mediaalpha Inc Valuation, Mediaalpha Inc Correlation, Mediaalpha Inc Hype Analysis, Mediaalpha Inc Volatility, Mediaalpha Inc History as well as Mediaalpha Inc Performance. Note that the Mediaalpha Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mediaalpha Inc's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Mediaalpha Stock analysis

When running Mediaalpha Inc price analysis, check to measure Mediaalpha Inc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mediaalpha Inc is operating at the current time. Most of Mediaalpha Inc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mediaalpha Inc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mediaalpha Inc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mediaalpha Inc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mediaalpha Inc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mediaalpha Inc. If investors know Mediaalpha will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mediaalpha Inc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
724.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.42) 
Return On Assets
(0.09) 
The market value of Mediaalpha Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mediaalpha that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mediaalpha Inc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mediaalpha Inc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mediaalpha Inc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mediaalpha Inc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mediaalpha Inc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Mediaalpha Inc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mediaalpha Inc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.