Mastercard Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 320.16

MA
 Stock
  

USD 355.33  3.92  1.09%   

Mastercard's future price is the expected price of Mastercard instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mastercard performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 41.16, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to 41.39.
  
Mastercard's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Mastercard. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Mastercard based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Mastercard over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $355.0 is a CALL option contract on Mastercard's common stock with a strick price of 355.0 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-17 at 15:57:27 for $3.15 and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.65, and an ask price of $3.25. The implied volatility as of the 17th of August 2022 is 28.2651. View All Mastercard options

Closest to current price Mastercard long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see Mastercard Backtesting, Mastercard Valuation, Mastercard Correlation, Mastercard Hype Analysis, Mastercard Volatility, Mastercard History as well as Mastercard Performance. Please specify Mastercard time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Mastercard odds to be computed.

Mastercard Target Price Odds to finish over 320.16

The tendency of Mastercard Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 320.16  in 90 days
 355.33 90 days 320.16 
about 88.23
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mastercard to stay above $ 320.16  in 90 days from now is about 88.23 (This Mastercard probability density function shows the probability of Mastercard Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mastercard price to stay between $ 320.16  and its current price of $355.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 73.72 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.23 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Mastercard will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0106, implying that it can generate a 0.0106 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Mastercard Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mastercard

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mastercard. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mastercard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mastercard in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
351.58353.39390.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
319.80386.15387.96
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
360.58362.40364.21
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
355.00427.18482.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mastercard. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mastercard's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mastercard's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Mastercard.

Mastercard Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mastercard is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mastercard's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mastercard, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mastercard within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.010562
β
Beta against DOW1.23
σ
Overall volatility
15.67
Ir
Information ratio 0.015778

Mastercard Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mastercard for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mastercard can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mastercard is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 9th of August 2022 Mastercard paid $ 0.49 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Sachin J Mehra of 1270 shares of Mastercard subject to Rule 16b-3

Mastercard Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mastercard Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mastercard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mastercard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.55%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.76
Short Percent Of Float0.63%
Float Shares957.3M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.55M
Shares Short Prior Month4.94M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.88M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.50%

Mastercard Technical Analysis

Mastercard's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mastercard Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mastercard. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mastercard Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mastercard Predictive Forecast Models

Mastercard time-series forecasting models is one of many Mastercard's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Mastercard's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Mastercard

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mastercard for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mastercard help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Mastercard Alerts

Mastercard Alerts and Suggestions

Mastercard is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 9th of August 2022 Mastercard paid $ 0.49 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Sachin J Mehra of 1270 shares of Mastercard subject to Rule 16b-3
Additionally, see Mastercard Backtesting, Mastercard Valuation, Mastercard Correlation, Mastercard Hype Analysis, Mastercard Volatility, Mastercard History as well as Mastercard Performance. Note that the Mastercard information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mastercard's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Mastercard Stock analysis

When running Mastercard price analysis, check to measure Mastercard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mastercard is operating at the current time. Most of Mastercard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mastercard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mastercard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mastercard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mastercard's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mastercard. If investors know Mastercard will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mastercard listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.13
Market Capitalization
347.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.21
Return On Assets
0.21
Return On Equity
1.51
The market value of Mastercard is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mastercard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mastercard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mastercard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mastercard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mastercard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mastercard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Mastercard value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mastercard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.