LCI Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 118.83

LCII
 Stock
  

USD 99.69  0.83  0.84%   

LCI Industries' future price is the expected price of LCI Industries instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of LCI Industries performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Book Value is estimated to increase to 3.87. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to 15.23.
  
LCI Industries' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on LCI Industries. Implied volatility approximates the future value of LCI Industries based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in LCI Industries over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $100.0 is a CALL option contract on LCI Industries' common stock with a strick price of 100.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-29 at 12:18:09 for $3.36 and, as of today, has 15 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.7, and an ask price of $2.6. The implied volatility as of the 1st of December is 33.4568. View All LCI Industries options

Closest to current price LCI Industries long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Additionally, see LCI Industries Backtesting, LCI Industries Valuation, LCI Industries Correlation, LCI Industries Hype Analysis, LCI Industries Volatility, LCI Industries History as well as LCI Industries Performance. Please specify LCI Industries time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like LCI Industries odds to be computed.

LCI Industries Target Price Odds to finish over 118.83

The tendency of LCI Industries Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 118.83  or more in 90 days
 99.69 90 days 118.83 
roughly 2.74
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LCI Industries to move over $ 118.83  or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.74 (This LCI Industries probability density function shows the probability of LCI Industries Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LCI Industries price to stay between its current price of $ 99.69  and $ 118.83  at the end of the 90-day period is about 67.79 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.35 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, LCI Industries will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. LCI Industries is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   LCI Industries Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for LCI Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LCI Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of LCI Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of LCI Industries in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
95.6098.77101.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
88.97114.91118.08
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
99.07102.24105.42
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
160.00170.00178.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as LCI Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against LCI Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, LCI Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in LCI Industries.

LCI Industries Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LCI Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LCI Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LCI Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LCI Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.37
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.35
σ
Overall volatility
7.78
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

LCI Industries Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LCI Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LCI Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
LCI Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
LCI Industries has high historical volatility and very poor performance
LCI Industries currently holds about 54.99 M in cash with (111.57 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.16.
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals Is The Market Wrong About LCI Industries - Simply Wall St

LCI Industries Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LCI Industries Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LCI Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LCI Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding25417000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments62896000.00

LCI Industries Technical Analysis

LCI Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LCI Industries Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LCI Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing LCI Industries Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

LCI Industries Predictive Forecast Models

LCI Industries time-series forecasting models is one of many LCI Industries' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary LCI Industries' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about LCI Industries

Checking the ongoing alerts about LCI Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LCI Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
LCI Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
LCI Industries has high historical volatility and very poor performance
LCI Industries currently holds about 54.99 M in cash with (111.57 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.16.
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals Is The Market Wrong About LCI Industries - Simply Wall St
Additionally, see LCI Industries Backtesting, LCI Industries Valuation, LCI Industries Correlation, LCI Industries Hype Analysis, LCI Industries Volatility, LCI Industries History as well as LCI Industries Performance. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running LCI Industries price analysis, check to measure LCI Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LCI Industries is operating at the current time. Most of LCI Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LCI Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LCI Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LCI Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is LCI Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LCI Industries. If investors know LCI Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LCI Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.036) 
Market Capitalization
2.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.029) 
Return On Assets
0.14
Return On Equity
0.4
The market value of LCI Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LCI Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LCI Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LCI Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LCI Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LCI Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LCI Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine LCI Industries value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LCI Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.