Kellogg Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 73.07

K
 Stock
  

USD 73.07  0.28  0.38%   

Kellogg's future price is the expected price of Kellogg instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Kellogg Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Book Value is estimated to increase to 10.24. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to 27.27.
  
Please see Kellogg Backtesting, Kellogg Valuation, Kellogg Correlation, Kellogg Hype Analysis, Kellogg Volatility, Kellogg History as well as Kellogg Performance. Please specify Kellogg time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Kellogg odds to be computed.

Kellogg Target Price Odds to finish over 73.07

The tendency of Kellogg Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 73.07 90 days 73.07 
about 19.94
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kellogg to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 19.94 (This Kellogg Company probability density function shows the probability of Kellogg Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon Kellogg has a beta of 0.39. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Kellogg average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kellogg Company will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Kellogg Company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Kellogg Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Kellogg

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kellogg Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kellogg's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kellogg in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
71.4273.0674.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
68.8170.4580.38
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
75.0576.7078.34
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
64.0068.2276.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kellogg. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kellogg's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kellogg's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kellogg Company.

Kellogg Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kellogg is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kellogg's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kellogg Company, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kellogg within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.0021
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.39
σ
Overall volatility
1.73
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Kellogg Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kellogg for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kellogg Company can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has accumulated 6.26 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.56, which looks OK as compared to the sector. Kellogg Company has a current ratio of 0.73, which means it has a negative working capital and may have difficulties to pay out interest payments when they become due. Debt can assist Kellogg until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Kellogg's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Kellogg Company sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Kellogg to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Kellogg's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 85.0% of Kellogg shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Kellogg, General Mills and Post innovating cereal amid declining sales - CNBC

Kellogg Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kellogg Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kellogg's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kellogg's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding343648961.00
Cash And Short Term Investments286000000.00

Kellogg Technical Analysis

Kellogg's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kellogg Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kellogg Company. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kellogg Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Kellogg Predictive Forecast Models

Kellogg time-series forecasting models is one of many Kellogg's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Kellogg's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Kellogg Company

Checking the ongoing alerts about Kellogg for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kellogg Company help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has accumulated 6.26 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.56, which looks OK as compared to the sector. Kellogg Company has a current ratio of 0.73, which means it has a negative working capital and may have difficulties to pay out interest payments when they become due. Debt can assist Kellogg until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Kellogg's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Kellogg Company sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Kellogg to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Kellogg's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 85.0% of Kellogg shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Kellogg, General Mills and Post innovating cereal amid declining sales - CNBC
Please see Kellogg Backtesting, Kellogg Valuation, Kellogg Correlation, Kellogg Hype Analysis, Kellogg Volatility, Kellogg History as well as Kellogg Performance. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Kellogg Company price analysis, check to measure Kellogg's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kellogg is operating at the current time. Most of Kellogg's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kellogg's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kellogg's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kellogg to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kellogg's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kellogg. If investors know Kellogg will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kellogg listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Kellogg Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kellogg that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kellogg's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kellogg's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kellogg's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kellogg's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kellogg's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kellogg value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kellogg's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.