Intra-Cellular Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 42.70

ITCI
 Stock
  

USD 42.70  0.81  1.86%   

Intra-Cellular Ther's future price is the expected price of Intra-Cellular Ther instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Intra-Cellular Ther performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Intra-Cellular Ther's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Intra-Cellular Ther. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Intra-Cellular Ther based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Intra-Cellular Ther over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $45.0 is a CALL option contract on Intra-Cellular Ther's common stock with a strick price of 45.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-23 at 15:30:41 for $2.42 and, as of today, has 25 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.3, and an ask price of $3.1. The implied volatility as of the 26th of September is 64.1762. View All Intra-Cellular options

Closest to current price Intra-Cellular long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please see Intra-Cellular Ther Backtesting, Intra-Cellular Ther Valuation, Intra-Cellular Ther Correlation, Intra-Cellular Ther Hype Analysis, Intra-Cellular Ther Volatility, Intra-Cellular Ther History as well as Intra-Cellular Ther Performance. Please specify Intra-Cellular Ther time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Intra-Cellular Ther odds to be computed.

Intra-Cellular Ther Target Price Odds to finish over 42.70

The tendency of Intra-Cellular Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 42.70 90 days 42.70 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Intra-Cellular Ther to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Intra-Cellular Ther probability density function shows the probability of Intra-Cellular Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Intra-Cellular Ther has a beta of 0.46. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Intra-Cellular Ther average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Intra-Cellular Ther will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Intra-Cellular Ther is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Intra-Cellular Ther Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Intra-Cellular Ther

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intra-Cellular Ther. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Intra-Cellular Ther's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Intra-Cellular Ther in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
40.6643.6246.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
39.2951.8354.79
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
46.0060.0085.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Intra-Cellular Ther. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Intra-Cellular Ther's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Intra-Cellular Ther's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Intra-Cellular Ther.

Intra-Cellular Ther Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Intra-Cellular Ther is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Intra-Cellular Ther's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Intra-Cellular Ther, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Intra-Cellular Ther within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.28
β
Beta against DOW0.46
σ
Overall volatility
3.70
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Intra-Cellular Ther Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Intra-Cellular Ther for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Intra-Cellular Ther can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Intra-Cellular Ther generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 102.92 M. Net Loss for the year was (303.5 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (13.08 M).
Intra-Cellular Ther currently holds about 771.85 M in cash with (294.63 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.18.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Lawrence Hineline of 65164 shares of Intra-Cellular Ther subject to Rule 16b-3

Intra-Cellular Ther Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Intra-Cellular Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Intra-Cellular Ther's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Intra-Cellular Ther's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.93%
Short Percent Of Float4.53%
Float Shares87.29M
Shares Short Prior Month3.59M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day642.73k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month728.63k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Intra-Cellular Ther Technical Analysis

Intra-Cellular Ther's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Intra-Cellular Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Intra-Cellular Ther. In general, you should focus on analyzing Intra-Cellular Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Intra-Cellular Ther Predictive Forecast Models

Intra-Cellular Ther time-series forecasting models is one of many Intra-Cellular Ther's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Intra-Cellular Ther's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Intra-Cellular Ther

Checking the ongoing alerts about Intra-Cellular Ther for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Intra-Cellular Ther help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Intra-Cellular Ther Alerts

Intra-Cellular Ther Alerts and Suggestions

Intra-Cellular Ther generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 102.92 M. Net Loss for the year was (303.5 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (13.08 M).
Intra-Cellular Ther currently holds about 771.85 M in cash with (294.63 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.18.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Lawrence Hineline of 65164 shares of Intra-Cellular Ther subject to Rule 16b-3
Please see Intra-Cellular Ther Backtesting, Intra-Cellular Ther Valuation, Intra-Cellular Ther Correlation, Intra-Cellular Ther Hype Analysis, Intra-Cellular Ther Volatility, Intra-Cellular Ther History as well as Intra-Cellular Ther Performance. Note that the Intra-Cellular Ther information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Intra-Cellular Ther's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Probability Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

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When running Intra-Cellular Ther price analysis, check to measure Intra-Cellular Ther's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Intra-Cellular Ther is operating at the current time. Most of Intra-Cellular Ther's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Intra-Cellular Ther's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Intra-Cellular Ther's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Intra-Cellular Ther to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Intra-Cellular Ther's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Intra-Cellular Ther. If investors know Intra-Cellular will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Intra-Cellular Ther listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Intra-Cellular Ther is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Intra-Cellular that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Intra-Cellular Ther's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Intra-Cellular Ther's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Intra-Cellular Ther's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Intra-Cellular Ther's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Intra-Cellular Ther's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Intra-Cellular Ther value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Intra-Cellular Ther's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.