Intel Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 33.79

INTC
 Stock
  

USD 25.77  0.61  2.31%   

Intel Corp's future price is the expected price of Intel Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Intel Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Intel Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Intel Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Intel Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Intel Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-07 CALL at $26.0 is a CALL option contract on Intel Corp's common stock with a strick price of 26.0 expiring on 2022-10-07. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-30 at 15:59:52 for $0.51 and, as of today, has 5 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.5, and an ask price of $0.52. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of October is 47.0164. View All Intel options

Closest to current price Intel long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please see Intel Corp Backtesting, Intel Corp Valuation, Intel Corp Correlation, Intel Corp Hype Analysis, Intel Corp Volatility, Intel Corp History as well as Intel Corp Performance. Please specify Intel Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Intel Corp odds to be computed.

Intel Corp Target Price Odds to finish below 33.79

The tendency of Intel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 33.79  after 90 days
 25.77 90 days 33.79 
about 47.24
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Intel Corp to stay under $ 33.79  after 90 days from now is about 47.24 (This Intel Corp probability density function shows the probability of Intel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Intel Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 25.77  and $ 33.79  at the end of the 90-day period is about 45.56 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.26 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Intel Corp will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Intel Corp is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Intel Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Intel Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intel Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Intel Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Intel Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
23.5125.7227.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
23.1933.4535.66
Details
27 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0058.2985.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Intel Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Intel Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Intel Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Intel Corp.

Intel Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Intel Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Intel Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Intel Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Intel Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.38
β
Beta against DOW1.26
σ
Overall volatility
3.95
Ir
Information ratio -0.18

Intel Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Intel Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Intel Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Intel Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 1st of September 2022 Intel Corp paid $ 0.365 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Intel shareholders have endured a 43 percent loss from investing in the stock a year ago - Nasdaq

Intel Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Intel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Intel Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Intel Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.71%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.34
Short Percent Of Float1.71%
Float Shares4.1B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day42.58M
Shares Short Prior Month79.04M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month40.18M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.93%

Intel Corp Technical Analysis

Intel Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Intel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Intel Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Intel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Intel Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Intel Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Intel Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Intel Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Intel Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Intel Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Intel Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Intel Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 1st of September 2022 Intel Corp paid $ 0.365 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Intel shareholders have endured a 43 percent loss from investing in the stock a year ago - Nasdaq
Please see Intel Corp Backtesting, Intel Corp Valuation, Intel Corp Correlation, Intel Corp Hype Analysis, Intel Corp Volatility, Intel Corp History as well as Intel Corp Performance. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

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Is Intel Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Intel Corp. If investors know Intel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Intel Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Intel Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Intel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Intel Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Intel Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Intel Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Intel Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Intel Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Intel Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Intel Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.