Imedia Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.76

IMBI
 Stock
  

USD 0.67  0.08  10.67%   

Imedia Brands' future price is the expected price of Imedia Brands instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Imedia Brands performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Imedia Brands' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Imedia Brands. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Imedia Brands based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Imedia Brands over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Imedia Brands' common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-10-06 at 09:39:40 for $0.07 and, as of today, has 14 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.0, and an ask price of $0.05. The implied volatility as of the 7th of October is 555.1703. View All Imedia options

Closest to current price Imedia long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please see Imedia Brands Backtesting, Imedia Brands Valuation, Imedia Brands Correlation, Imedia Brands Hype Analysis, Imedia Brands Volatility, Imedia Brands History as well as Imedia Brands Performance. Please specify Imedia Brands time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Imedia Brands odds to be computed.

Imedia Brands Target Price Odds to finish below 1.76

The tendency of Imedia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 1.76  after 90 days
 0.67 90 days 1.76 
roughly 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Imedia Brands to stay under $ 1.76  after 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This Imedia Brands probability density function shows the probability of Imedia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Imedia Brands price to stay between its current price of $ 0.67  and $ 1.76  at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.48 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.83 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Imedia Brands will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Imedia Brands is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Imedia Brands Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Imedia Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Imedia Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Imedia Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Imedia Brands in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.030.598.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.316.1213.81
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
22.0022.5023.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Imedia Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Imedia Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Imedia Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Imedia Brands.

Imedia Brands Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Imedia Brands is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Imedia Brands' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Imedia Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Imedia Brands within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.52
β
Beta against DOW1.83
σ
Overall volatility
0.33
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Imedia Brands Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Imedia Brands for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Imedia Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Imedia Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Imedia Brands has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Imedia Brands has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Imedia Brands has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 592.48 M. Net Loss for the year was (30.68 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 222.62 M.
Imedia Brands currently holds about 12.05 M in cash with (41.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.5.
Roughly 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from www.benzinga.com: ShopHQ Welcomes Back Three Returning Top Brands to Its Networks - iMedia Brands , iMedia Bra - Benzinga

Imedia Brands Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Imedia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Imedia Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Imedia Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.92%
Short Percent Of Float1.05%
Float Shares20.55M
Shares Short Prior Month179.42k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day907.46k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month273.77k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Imedia Brands Technical Analysis

Imedia Brands' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Imedia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Imedia Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing Imedia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Imedia Brands Predictive Forecast Models

Imedia Brands time-series forecasting models is one of many Imedia Brands' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Imedia Brands' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Imedia Brands

Checking the ongoing alerts about Imedia Brands for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Imedia Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Imedia Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Imedia Brands has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Imedia Brands has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Imedia Brands has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 592.48 M. Net Loss for the year was (30.68 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 222.62 M.
Imedia Brands currently holds about 12.05 M in cash with (41.45 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.5.
Roughly 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from www.benzinga.com: ShopHQ Welcomes Back Three Returning Top Brands to Its Networks - iMedia Brands , iMedia Bra - Benzinga
Please see Imedia Brands Backtesting, Imedia Brands Valuation, Imedia Brands Correlation, Imedia Brands Hype Analysis, Imedia Brands Volatility, Imedia Brands History as well as Imedia Brands Performance. Note that the Imedia Brands information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Imedia Brands' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

Complementary Tools for Imedia Stock analysis

When running Imedia Brands price analysis, check to measure Imedia Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Imedia Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Imedia Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Imedia Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Imedia Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Imedia Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Imedia Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Imedia Brands. If investors know Imedia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Imedia Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Imedia Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Imedia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Imedia Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Imedia Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Imedia Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Imedia Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Imedia Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Imedia Brands value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Imedia Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.