International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 122.13

IBM
 Stock
  

USD 122.13  0.12  0.1%   

International Business' future price is the expected price of International Business instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of International Business Machines performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
International Business' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on International Business Machines. Implied volatility approximates the future value of International Business based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in International Business Machines over a specific time period. For example, 2022-09-30 CALL at $122.0 is a CALL option contract on International Business' common stock with a strick price of 122.0 expiring on 2022-09-30. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-26 at 15:37:41 for $1.94 and, as of today, has 3 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.68, and an ask price of $1.79. The implied volatility as of the 27th of September is 34.2177. View All International options

Closest to current price International long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please see International Business Backtesting, International Business Valuation, International Business Correlation, International Business Hype Analysis, International Business Volatility, International Business History as well as International Business Performance. Please specify International Business time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like International Business odds to be computed.

International Business Target Price Odds to finish over 122.13

The tendency of International Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 122.13 90 days 122.13 
about 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of International Business to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This International Business Machines probability density function shows the probability of International Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon International Business has a beta of 0.53. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, International Business average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding International Business Machines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. International Business is significantly underperforming DOW.
   International Business Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for International Business

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Business. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of International Business' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of International Business in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
120.49121.79123.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
109.81137.42138.72
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
124.36125.66126.97
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
124.00148.11170.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as International Business. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against International Business' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, International Business' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in International Business.

International Business Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. International Business is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the International Business' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold International Business Machines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of International Business within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.15
β
Beta against DOW0.53
σ
Overall volatility
5.44
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

International Business Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of International Business for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for International Business can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
International Business generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 53.38 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.74, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. International Business has a current ratio of 0.86, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist International Business until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, International Business' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like International Business sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for International to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about International Business' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
About 58.0% of International Business shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.setenews.com: Investors in cash trouble should check out International Business Machines Corporation - SETE News

International Business Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of International Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential International Business' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. International Business' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date9th of August 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out2.64%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate6.58
Short Percent Of Float2.64%
Float Shares901.63M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.47M
Shares Short Prior Month23.11M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.69M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022

International Business Technical Analysis

International Business' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. International Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of International Business Machines. In general, you should focus on analyzing International Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

International Business Predictive Forecast Models

International Business time-series forecasting models is one of many International Business' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary International Business' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about International Business

Checking the ongoing alerts about International Business for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for International Business help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

International Business Alerts

International Business Alerts and Suggestions

International Business generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 53.38 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.74, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. International Business has a current ratio of 0.86, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist International Business until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, International Business' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like International Business sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for International to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about International Business' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
About 58.0% of International Business shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.setenews.com: Investors in cash trouble should check out International Business Machines Corporation - SETE News
Please see International Business Backtesting, International Business Valuation, International Business Correlation, International Business Hype Analysis, International Business Volatility, International Business History as well as International Business Performance. Note that the International Business information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other International Business' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

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When running International Business price analysis, check to measure International Business' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy International Business is operating at the current time. Most of International Business' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of International Business' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move International Business' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of International Business to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is International Business' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of International Business. If investors know International will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about International Business listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of International Business is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of International that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of International Business' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is International Business' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because International Business' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect International Business' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between International Business' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine International Business value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, International Business' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.