Marinemax Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 44.34

HZO -  USA Stock  

USD 39.94  2.24  5.94%

Marinemax's future price is the expected price of Marinemax instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Marinemax performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 6.36 this year, although Price to Book Value will most likely fall to 1.87.
  
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Marinemax's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Marinemax. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Marinemax based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Marinemax over a specific time period. For example, 2022-06-17 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on Marinemax's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2022-06-17. The contract was last traded on 2022-05-25 at 15:52:33 for $2.3 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.2, and an ask price of $2.35. The implied volatility as of the 26th of May is 58.2613. View All Marinemax options

Closest to current price Marinemax long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Marinemax Backtesting, Marinemax Valuation, Marinemax Correlation, Marinemax Hype Analysis, Marinemax Volatility, Marinemax History as well as Marinemax Performance. Please specify Marinemax time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Marinemax odds to be computed.
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Marinemax Target Price Odds to finish over 44.34

The tendency of Marinemax Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 44.34  or more in 90 days
 39.94 90 days 44.34  about 22.97
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marinemax to move over $ 44.34  or more in 90 days from now is about 22.97 (This Marinemax probability density function shows the probability of Marinemax Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Marinemax price to stay between its current price of $ 39.94  and $ 44.34  at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.86 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.35 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Marinemax will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Marinemax is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Marinemax Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Marinemax

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marinemax. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marinemax's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Marinemax in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36.5839.9643.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
35.9551.0454.42
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
31.7035.0838.45
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
49.0063.2575.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Marinemax. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Marinemax's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Marinemax's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Marinemax.

Marinemax Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marinemax is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marinemax's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marinemax, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marinemax within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.0064
β
Beta against DOW1.35
σ
Overall volatility
2.73
Ir
Information ratio -0.0092

Marinemax Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Marinemax for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Marinemax can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Marinemax generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Marinemax has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Marinemax has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: MarineMax, Inc. Given Consensus Rating of Buy by Analysts - Defense World

Marinemax Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Marinemax Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Marinemax's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marinemax's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out15.94%
Short Percent Of Float19.48%
Float Shares21M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day478.18k
Shares Short Prior Month3.48M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month467.98k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Marinemax Technical Analysis

Marinemax's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Marinemax Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Marinemax. In general, you should focus on analyzing Marinemax Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Marinemax Predictive Forecast Models

Marinemax time-series forecasting models is one of many Marinemax's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Marinemax's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Marinemax

Checking the ongoing alerts about Marinemax for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Marinemax help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Marinemax Alerts

Marinemax Alerts and Suggestions

Marinemax generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Marinemax has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Marinemax has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: MarineMax, Inc. Given Consensus Rating of Buy by Analysts - Defense World
Please check Marinemax Backtesting, Marinemax Valuation, Marinemax Correlation, Marinemax Hype Analysis, Marinemax Volatility, Marinemax History as well as Marinemax Performance. Note that the Marinemax information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Marinemax's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

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When running Marinemax price analysis, check to measure Marinemax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marinemax is operating at the current time. Most of Marinemax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marinemax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marinemax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marinemax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marinemax's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marinemax. If investors know Marinemax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marinemax listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Marinemax is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marinemax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marinemax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marinemax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marinemax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marinemax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marinemax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Marinemax value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marinemax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.