Hershey Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 209.5

HSY
 Stock
  

USD 221.00  5.84  2.71%   

Hershey Foods' future price is the expected price of Hershey Foods instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Hershey Foods Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Hershey Foods Price to Book Value is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Hershey Foods reported Price to Book Value of 14.46 in 2021. Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to rise to 32.08 in 2022, whereas Price to Sales Ratio is likely to drop 4.16 in 2022.
  
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Hershey Foods' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Hershey Foods Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Hershey Foods based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Hershey Foods Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-08 CALL at $220.0 is a CALL option contract on Hershey Foods' common stock with a strick price of 220.0 expiring on 2022-07-08. The contract was last traded on 2022-07-01 at 14:29:32 for $2.93 and, as of today, has 5 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.55, and an ask price of $3.0. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of July is 19.695. View All Hershey options

Closest to current price Hershey long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Hershey Foods Backtesting, Hershey Foods Valuation, Hershey Foods Correlation, Hershey Foods Hype Analysis, Hershey Foods Volatility, Hershey Foods History as well as Hershey Foods Performance. Please specify Hershey Foods time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Hershey Foods odds to be computed.
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Hershey Foods Target Price Odds to finish below 209.5

The tendency of Hershey Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 209.50  or more in 90 days
 221.00 90 days 209.50  about 12.34
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hershey Foods to drop to $ 209.50  or more in 90 days from now is about 12.34 (This Hershey Foods Corp probability density function shows the probability of Hershey Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hershey Foods Corp price to stay between $ 209.50  and its current price of $221.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.74 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Hershey Foods has a beta of 0.68. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Hershey Foods average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hershey Foods Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1844, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Hershey Foods Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Hershey Foods

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hershey Foods Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hershey Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hershey Foods in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
219.18220.90222.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
198.90225.49227.21
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
220.50222.22223.94
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
181.00193.50220.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hershey Foods. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hershey Foods' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hershey Foods' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hershey Foods Corp.

Hershey Foods Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hershey Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hershey Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hershey Foods Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hershey Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.18
β
Beta against DOW0.68
σ
Overall volatility
6.84
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

Hershey Foods Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hershey Foods for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hershey Foods Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 5.31 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.82, which is OK given its current industry classification. Hershey Foods Corp has a current ratio of 0.94, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Hershey Foods until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Hershey Foods' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Hershey Foods Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Hershey to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Hershey Foods' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Hershey Foods Corp has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 76.0% of Hershey Foods shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Hershey Foods exotic insider transaction detected

Hershey Foods Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hershey Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hershey Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hershey Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.09%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.31
Short Percent Of Float1.54%
Float Shares145.24M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.22M
Shares Short Prior Month1.85M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.13M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.50%

Hershey Foods Technical Analysis

Hershey Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hershey Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hershey Foods Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hershey Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Hershey Foods Predictive Forecast Models

Hershey Foods time-series forecasting models is one of many Hershey Foods' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Hershey Foods' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Hershey Foods Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Hershey Foods for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hershey Foods Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Hershey Foods Alerts

Hershey Foods Alerts and Suggestions

The company has 5.31 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.82, which is OK given its current industry classification. Hershey Foods Corp has a current ratio of 0.94, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Hershey Foods until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Hershey Foods' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Hershey Foods Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Hershey to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Hershey Foods' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Hershey Foods Corp has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 76.0% of Hershey Foods shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Hershey Foods exotic insider transaction detected
Please check Hershey Foods Backtesting, Hershey Foods Valuation, Hershey Foods Correlation, Hershey Foods Hype Analysis, Hershey Foods Volatility, Hershey Foods History as well as Hershey Foods Performance. Note that the Hershey Foods Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hershey Foods' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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When running Hershey Foods Corp price analysis, check to measure Hershey Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hershey Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Hershey Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hershey Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hershey Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hershey Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hershey Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hershey Foods. If investors know Hershey will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hershey Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.35
Market Capitalization
45.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.16
Return On Assets
0.14
Return On Equity
0.63
The market value of Hershey Foods Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hershey that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hershey Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hershey Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hershey Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hershey Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hershey Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hershey Foods value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hershey Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.