Hormel Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 46.87

HRL
 Stock
  

USD 46.87  0.18  0.38%   

Hormel Foods' future price is the expected price of Hormel Foods instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Hormel Foods Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Hormel Foods' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Hormel Foods Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Hormel Foods based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Hormel Foods Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-09-30 CALL at $47.0 is a CALL option contract on Hormel Foods' common stock with a strick price of 47.0 expiring on 2022-09-30. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-23 at 15:48:15 for $0.5 and, as of today, has 5 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.45, and an ask price of $0.65. The implied volatility as of the 25th of September is 23.3239. View All Hormel options

Closest to current price Hormel long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Hormel Foods Backtesting, Hormel Foods Valuation, Hormel Foods Correlation, Hormel Foods Hype Analysis, Hormel Foods Volatility, Hormel Foods History as well as Hormel Foods Performance. Please specify Hormel Foods time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Hormel Foods odds to be computed.

Hormel Foods Target Price Odds to finish over 46.87

The tendency of Hormel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 46.87 90 days 46.87 
about 80.74
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hormel Foods to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 80.74 (This Hormel Foods Corp probability density function shows the probability of Hormel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Hormel Foods has a beta of 0.31. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Hormel Foods average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hormel Foods Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.05, implying that it can generate a 0.05 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Hormel Foods Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Hormel Foods

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hormel Foods Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hormel Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hormel Foods in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
45.7146.8748.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
46.5947.7548.91
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
48.0949.2550.40
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0047.7550.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hormel Foods. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hormel Foods' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hormel Foods' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hormel Foods Corp.

Hormel Foods Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hormel Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hormel Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hormel Foods Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hormel Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.049965
β
Beta against DOW0.31
σ
Overall volatility
1.67
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Hormel Foods Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hormel Foods for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hormel Foods Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Hormel Foods Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 47.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 15th of August 2022 Hormel Foods paid $ 0.26 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Insiders at Hormel Foods Corporation sold US858k worth of stock, possibly indicating weakness in the future - Simply Wall St

Hormel Foods Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hormel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hormel Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hormel Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.99%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.94
Short Percent Of Float3.76%
Float Shares287.35M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.68M
Shares Short Prior Month10.79M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.44M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.00%

Hormel Foods Technical Analysis

Hormel Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hormel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hormel Foods Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hormel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Hormel Foods Predictive Forecast Models

Hormel Foods time-series forecasting models is one of many Hormel Foods' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Hormel Foods' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Hormel Foods Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Hormel Foods for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hormel Foods Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Hormel Foods Alerts

Hormel Foods Alerts and Suggestions

Hormel Foods Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 47.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
On 15th of August 2022 Hormel Foods paid $ 0.26 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Insiders at Hormel Foods Corporation sold US858k worth of stock, possibly indicating weakness in the future - Simply Wall St
Please check Hormel Foods Backtesting, Hormel Foods Valuation, Hormel Foods Correlation, Hormel Foods Hype Analysis, Hormel Foods Volatility, Hormel Foods History as well as Hormel Foods Performance. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Hormel Foods Corp price analysis, check to measure Hormel Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hormel Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Hormel Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hormel Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hormel Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hormel Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hormel Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hormel Foods. If investors know Hormel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hormel Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Hormel Foods Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hormel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hormel Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hormel Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hormel Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hormel Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hormel Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hormel Foods value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hormel Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.