Harley Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.18

HOG -  USA Stock  

USD 36.61  0.86  2.41%

Harley Davidson's future price is the expected price of Harley Davidson instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Harley-Davidson performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 2.90. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 9.14.
  
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Harley Davidson's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Harley-Davidson. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Harley Davidson based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Harley-Davidson over a specific time period. For example, 2022-05-20 CALL at $36.5 is a CALL option contract on Harley Davidson's common stock with a strick price of 36.5 expiring on 2022-05-20. The contract was last traded on 2022-05-18 at 13:34:11 for $0.65 and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.35, and an ask price of $0.55. The implied volatility as of the 19th of May is 72.0522. View All Harley options

Closest to current price Harley long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Harley Davidson Backtesting, Harley Davidson Valuation, Harley Davidson Correlation, Harley Davidson Hype Analysis, Harley Davidson Volatility, Harley Davidson History as well as Harley Davidson Performance. Please specify Harley Davidson time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Harley Davidson odds to be computed.
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Harley Davidson Target Price Odds to finish below 38.18

The tendency of Harley Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 38.18  after 90 days
 36.61 90 days 38.18  about 37.28
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Harley Davidson to stay under $ 38.18  after 90 days from now is about 37.28 (This Harley-Davidson probability density function shows the probability of Harley Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Harley-Davidson price to stay between its current price of $ 36.61  and $ 38.18  at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.5 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.87 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Harley Davidson will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1066, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Harley Davidson Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Harley Davidson

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harley-Davidson. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harley Davidson's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Harley Davidson in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
32.2935.5638.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
32.1841.9445.21
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
38.0046.8670.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.803.923.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Harley Davidson. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Harley Davidson's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Harley Davidson's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Harley-Davidson.

Harley Davidson Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Harley Davidson is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Harley Davidson's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Harley-Davidson, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Harley Davidson within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.11
β
Beta against DOW1.87
σ
Overall volatility
1.73
Ir
Information ratio -0.0052

Harley Davidson Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Harley Davidson for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Harley-Davidson can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Harley-Davidson generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Harley-Davidson has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Harley-Davidson was previously known as HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol HDI.
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Acquisition by Maryrose Sylvester of 3529 shares of Harley Davidson subject to Rule 16b-3

Harley Davidson Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Harley Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Harley Davidson's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harley Davidson's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out7.42%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.47
Short Percent Of Float8.13%
Float Shares139.28M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.05M
Shares Short Prior Month13.05M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.86M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.22%

Harley Davidson Technical Analysis

Harley Davidson's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Harley Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Harley-Davidson. In general, you should focus on analyzing Harley Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Harley Davidson Predictive Forecast Models

Harley Davidson time-series forecasting models is one of many Harley Davidson's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Harley Davidson's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Harley-Davidson

Checking the ongoing alerts about Harley Davidson for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Harley-Davidson help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Harley Davidson Alerts

Harley Davidson Alerts and Suggestions

Harley-Davidson generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Harley-Davidson has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Harley-Davidson was previously known as HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol HDI.
Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Acquisition by Maryrose Sylvester of 3529 shares of Harley Davidson subject to Rule 16b-3
Please check Harley Davidson Backtesting, Harley Davidson Valuation, Harley Davidson Correlation, Harley Davidson Hype Analysis, Harley Davidson Volatility, Harley Davidson History as well as Harley Davidson Performance. Note that the Harley-Davidson information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Harley Davidson's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Harley Stock analysis

When running Harley-Davidson price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Harley Davidson's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Harley Davidson. If investors know Harley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Harley Davidson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Harley-Davidson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harley Davidson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harley Davidson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harley Davidson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harley Davidson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harley Davidson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Harley Davidson value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harley Davidson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.