Helen Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 100.59

HELE
 Stock
  

USD 99.85  0.48  0.48%   

Helen Of's future price is the expected price of Helen Of instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Helen Of Troy performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Helen Of's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Helen Of Troy. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Helen Of based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Helen Of Troy over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $100.0 is a CALL option contract on Helen Of's common stock with a strick price of 100.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-08 at 10:18:29 for $5.3 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.85, and an ask price of $4.5. The implied volatility as of the 9th of December is 67.311. View All Helen options

Closest to current price Helen long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Helen Of Backtesting, Helen Of Valuation, Helen Of Correlation, Helen Of Hype Analysis, Helen Of Volatility, Helen Of History as well as Helen Of Performance. Please specify Helen Of time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Helen Of odds to be computed.

Helen Of Target Price Odds to finish below 100.59

The tendency of Helen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 100.59  after 90 days
 99.85 90 days 100.59 
about 51.95
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Helen Of to stay under $ 100.59  after 90 days from now is about 51.95 (This Helen Of Troy probability density function shows the probability of Helen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Helen Of Troy price to stay between its current price of $ 99.85  and $ 100.59  at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.57 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Helen Of will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Helen Of Troy is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Helen Of Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Helen Of

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Helen Of Troy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Helen Of's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Helen Of in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
96.1499.64103.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
89.87141.35144.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
96.4499.94103.44
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
255.00268.50282.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Helen Of. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Helen Of's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Helen Of's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Helen Of Troy.

Helen Of Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Helen Of is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Helen Of's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Helen Of Troy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Helen Of within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.34
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.57
σ
Overall volatility
8.88
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Helen Of Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Helen Of for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Helen Of Troy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Helen Of Troy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Helen Of Troy has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Darren Woody of 242 shares of Helen Of subject to Rule 16b-3

Helen Of Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Helen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Helen Of's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Helen Of's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding24410000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments33381000.00

Helen Of Technical Analysis

Helen Of's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Helen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Helen Of Troy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Helen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Helen Of Predictive Forecast Models

Helen Of time-series forecasting models is one of many Helen Of's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Helen Of's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Helen Of Troy

Checking the ongoing alerts about Helen Of for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Helen Of Troy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Helen Of Troy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Helen Of Troy has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Darren Woody of 242 shares of Helen Of subject to Rule 16b-3
Please check Helen Of Backtesting, Helen Of Valuation, Helen Of Correlation, Helen Of Hype Analysis, Helen Of Volatility, Helen Of History as well as Helen Of Performance. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Helen Of Troy price analysis, check to measure Helen Of's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Helen Of is operating at the current time. Most of Helen Of's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Helen Of's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Helen Of's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Helen Of to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Helen Of's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Helen Of. If investors know Helen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Helen Of listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.39) 
Market Capitalization
2.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.097
Return On Assets
0.052
Return On Equity
0.1281
The market value of Helen Of Troy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Helen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Helen Of's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Helen Of's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Helen Of's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Helen Of's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Helen Of's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Helen Of value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Helen Of's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.