Home Depot Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 286.53

HD
 Stock
  

USD 274.27  0.40  0.15%   

Home Depot's future price is the expected price of Home Depot instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Home Depot performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 24.27, whereas Price to Book Value is projected to grow to (72.26) .
  
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Home Depot's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Home Depot. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Home Depot based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Home Depot over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-01 CALL at $275.0 is a CALL option contract on Home Depot's common stock with a strick price of 275.0 expiring on 2022-07-01. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-30 at 15:57:53 for $1.6 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.62, and an ask price of $2.16. The implied volatility as of the 1st of July is 39.0563. View All Home Depot options

Closest to current price Home Depot long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Home Depot Backtesting, Home Depot Valuation, Home Depot Correlation, Home Depot Hype Analysis, Home Depot Volatility, Home Depot History as well as Home Depot Performance. Please specify Home Depot time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Home Depot odds to be computed.
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Home Depot Target Price Odds to finish over 286.53

The tendency of Home Depot Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 286.53  or more in 90 days
 274.27 90 days 286.53  about 75.07
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Home Depot to move over $ 286.53  or more in 90 days from now is about 75.07 (This Home Depot probability density function shows the probability of Home Depot Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Home Depot price to stay between its current price of $ 274.27  and $ 286.53  at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.23 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.15 . This usually indicates Home Depot market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Home Depot is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.038, implying that it can generate a 0.038 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Home Depot Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Home Depot

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Depot. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Depot's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Home Depot in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
272.21274.33276.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
246.84307.64309.76
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
275.49277.60279.72
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
315.00409.58470.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Home Depot. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Home Depot's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Home Depot's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Home Depot.

Home Depot Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Home Depot is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Home Depot's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Home Depot, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Home Depot within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.037959
β
Beta against DOW1.15
σ
Overall volatility
12.28
Ir
Information ratio 0.004046

Home Depot Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Home Depot for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Home Depot can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Home Depot generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Home Depot has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Payment of 3553 shares by Teresa Roseborough of Home Depot subject to Rule 16b-3

Home Depot Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Home Depot Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Home Depot's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home Depot's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date1st of June 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out0.92%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate7.10
Short Percent Of Float0.92%
Float Shares1.03B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day5.58M
Shares Short Prior Month7.82M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.82M
Date Short Interest15th of June 2022

Home Depot Technical Analysis

Home Depot's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Home Depot Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Home Depot. In general, you should focus on analyzing Home Depot Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Home Depot Predictive Forecast Models

Home Depot time-series forecasting models is one of many Home Depot's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Home Depot's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Home Depot

Checking the ongoing alerts about Home Depot for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Home Depot help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Home Depot Alerts

Home Depot Alerts and Suggestions

Home Depot generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Home Depot has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Payment of 3553 shares by Teresa Roseborough of Home Depot subject to Rule 16b-3
Please check Home Depot Backtesting, Home Depot Valuation, Home Depot Correlation, Home Depot Hype Analysis, Home Depot Volatility, Home Depot History as well as Home Depot Performance. Note that the Home Depot information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Home Depot's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

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When running Home Depot price analysis, check to measure Home Depot's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Home Depot is operating at the current time. Most of Home Depot's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Home Depot's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Home Depot's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Home Depot to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Home Depot's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Depot. If investors know Home Depot will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Depot listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.06
Market Capitalization
281.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.038
Return On Assets
0.2
Return On Equity
0.85
The market value of Home Depot is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home Depot that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Depot's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Depot's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Depot's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Depot's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Depot's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Home Depot value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Depot's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.