Hawaiian Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.49

HA
 Stock
  

USD 14.85  0.09  0.61%   

Hawaiian Hlds' future price is the expected price of Hawaiian Hlds instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Hawaiian Hlds performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Hawaiian Hlds Price to Book Value is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Price to Book Value was at 1.65. The current year Price to Sales Ratio is expected to grow to 0.65, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are forecasted to decline to (6.96) .
  
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Hawaiian Hlds' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Hawaiian Hlds. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Hawaiian Hlds based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Hawaiian Hlds over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $15.0 is a CALL option contract on Hawaiian Hlds' common stock with a strick price of 15.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-07-06 at 10:20:30 for $0.5 and, as of today, has 8 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.4, and an ask price of $0.5. The implied volatility as of the 7th of July is 65.4779. View All Hawaiian options

Closest to current price Hawaiian long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Hawaiian Hlds Backtesting, Hawaiian Hlds Valuation, Hawaiian Hlds Correlation, Hawaiian Hlds Hype Analysis, Hawaiian Hlds Volatility, Hawaiian Hlds History as well as Hawaiian Hlds Performance. Please specify Hawaiian Hlds time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Hawaiian Hlds odds to be computed.
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Hawaiian Hlds Target Price Odds to finish over 15.49

The tendency of Hawaiian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 15.49  or more in 90 days
 14.85 90 days 15.49  about 73.16
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hawaiian Hlds to move over $ 15.49  or more in 90 days from now is about 73.16 (This Hawaiian Hlds probability density function shows the probability of Hawaiian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hawaiian Hlds price to stay between its current price of $ 14.85  and $ 15.49  at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.8 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.8 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Hawaiian Hlds will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Hawaiian Hlds is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Hawaiian Hlds Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Hawaiian Hlds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hawaiian Hlds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hawaiian Hlds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hawaiian Hlds in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.5614.5818.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.9917.0121.03
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
13.2417.2521.27
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0026.4032.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hawaiian Hlds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hawaiian Hlds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hawaiian Hlds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hawaiian Hlds.

Hawaiian Hlds Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hawaiian Hlds is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hawaiian Hlds' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hawaiian Hlds, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hawaiian Hlds within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.07
β
Beta against DOW1.80
σ
Overall volatility
1.91
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Hawaiian Hlds Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hawaiian Hlds for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hawaiian Hlds can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Hawaiian Hlds generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Hawaiian Hlds has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Hawaiian Hlds has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company generated the yearly revenue of 1.89 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (206.89 M) with gross Loss of (386.79 M).
Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Hawaiian Hlds Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hawaiian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hawaiian Hlds' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hawaiian Hlds' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out8.64%
Short Percent Of Float14.16%
Float Shares50.22M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.08M
Shares Short Prior Month4.93M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.07M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Hawaiian Hlds Technical Analysis

Hawaiian Hlds' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hawaiian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hawaiian Hlds. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hawaiian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Hawaiian Hlds Predictive Forecast Models

Hawaiian Hlds time-series forecasting models is one of many Hawaiian Hlds' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Hawaiian Hlds' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Hawaiian Hlds

Checking the ongoing alerts about Hawaiian Hlds for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hawaiian Hlds help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Hawaiian Hlds Alerts

Hawaiian Hlds Alerts and Suggestions

Hawaiian Hlds generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Hawaiian Hlds has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Hawaiian Hlds has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company generated the yearly revenue of 1.89 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (206.89 M) with gross Loss of (386.79 M).
Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Please check Hawaiian Hlds Backtesting, Hawaiian Hlds Valuation, Hawaiian Hlds Correlation, Hawaiian Hlds Hype Analysis, Hawaiian Hlds Volatility, Hawaiian Hlds History as well as Hawaiian Hlds Performance. Note that the Hawaiian Hlds information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hawaiian Hlds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for Hawaiian Stock analysis

When running Hawaiian Hlds price analysis, check to measure Hawaiian Hlds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hawaiian Hlds is operating at the current time. Most of Hawaiian Hlds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hawaiian Hlds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hawaiian Hlds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hawaiian Hlds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hawaiian Hlds' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hawaiian Hlds. If investors know Hawaiian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hawaiian Hlds listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.076
Market Capitalization
757.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
1.62
Return On Assets
-0.0612
Return On Equity
-0.4
The market value of Hawaiian Hlds is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hawaiian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hawaiian Hlds' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hawaiian Hlds' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hawaiian Hlds' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hawaiian Hlds' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hawaiian Hlds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hawaiian Hlds value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hawaiian Hlds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.