Barrick Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.38

GOLD
 Stock
  

USD 16.38  0.51  3.21%   

Barrick Gold's future price is the expected price of Barrick Gold instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Barrick Gold Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Barrick Gold's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Barrick Gold Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Barrick Gold based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Barrick Gold Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-02 CALL at $16.5 is a CALL option contract on Barrick Gold's common stock with a strick price of 16.5 expiring on 2022-12-02. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-29 at 15:59:30 for $0.05 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.06. The implied volatility as of the 30th of November is 51.6688. View All Barrick options

Closest to current price Barrick long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Barrick Gold Backtesting, Barrick Gold Valuation, Barrick Gold Correlation, Barrick Gold Hype Analysis, Barrick Gold Volatility, Barrick Gold History as well as Barrick Gold Performance. Please specify Barrick Gold time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Barrick Gold odds to be computed.

Barrick Gold Target Price Odds to finish over 16.38

The tendency of Barrick Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 16.38 90 days 16.38 
under 4
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Barrick Gold to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Barrick Gold Corp probability density function shows the probability of Barrick Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.14 . This usually indicates Barrick Gold Corp market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Barrick Gold is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0101, implying that it can generate a 0.0101 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Barrick Gold Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Barrick Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Barrick Gold Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Barrick Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Barrick Gold in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
12.9315.9218.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
15.3418.3321.32
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
12.5515.5318.52
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0026.2632.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Barrick Gold. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Barrick Gold's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Barrick Gold's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Barrick Gold Corp.

Barrick Gold Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Barrick Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Barrick Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Barrick Gold Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Barrick Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.010148
β
Beta against DOW1.14
σ
Overall volatility
0.64
Ir
Information ratio 0.00679

Barrick Gold Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Barrick Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Barrick Gold Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Barrick to Report Q3 Earnings Whats in the Offing - Zacks Investment Research

Barrick Gold Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Barrick Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Barrick Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Barrick Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date30th of August 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out2.50%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.40
Float Shares1.75B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day16.35M
Shares Short Prior Month39.81M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month22.1M
Date Short Interest15th of November 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.61%

Barrick Gold Technical Analysis

Barrick Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Barrick Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Barrick Gold Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Barrick Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Barrick Gold Predictive Forecast Models

Barrick Gold time-series forecasting models is one of many Barrick Gold's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Barrick Gold's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Barrick Gold Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Barrick Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Barrick Gold Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Barrick to Report Q3 Earnings Whats in the Offing - Zacks Investment Research
Please check Barrick Gold Backtesting, Barrick Gold Valuation, Barrick Gold Correlation, Barrick Gold Hype Analysis, Barrick Gold Volatility, Barrick Gold History as well as Barrick Gold Performance. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Barrick Gold Corp price analysis, check to measure Barrick Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Barrick Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Barrick Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Barrick Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Barrick Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Barrick Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Barrick Gold's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Barrick Gold. If investors know Barrick will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Barrick Gold listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.30) 
Market Capitalization
27.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.11) 
Return On Assets
0.0512
Return On Equity
0.0927
The market value of Barrick Gold Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Barrick that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Barrick Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Barrick Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Barrick Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Barrick Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Barrick Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Barrick Gold value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Barrick Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.