Grocery Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 45.97

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 Stock
  

USD 33.13  0.16  0.48%   

Grocery Outlet's future price is the expected price of Grocery Outlet instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Grocery Outlet Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Grocery Outlet's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Grocery Outlet Holding. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Grocery Outlet based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Grocery Outlet Holding over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $35.0 is a CALL option contract on Grocery Outlet's common stock with a strick price of 35.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-10-03 at 15:18:01 for $0.6 and, as of today, has 17 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.5, and an ask price of $0.6. The implied volatility as of the 4th of October is 44.8768. View All Grocery options

Closest to current price Grocery long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Grocery Outlet Backtesting, Grocery Outlet Valuation, Grocery Outlet Correlation, Grocery Outlet Hype Analysis, Grocery Outlet Volatility, Grocery Outlet History as well as Grocery Outlet Performance. Please specify Grocery Outlet time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Grocery Outlet odds to be computed.

Grocery Outlet Target Price Odds to finish over 45.97

The tendency of Grocery Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 45.97  or more in 90 days
 33.13 90 days 45.97 
about 7.77
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grocery Outlet to move over $ 45.97  or more in 90 days from now is about 7.77 (This Grocery Outlet Holding probability density function shows the probability of Grocery Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grocery Outlet Holding price to stay between its current price of $ 33.13  and $ 45.97  at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.72 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Grocery Outlet has a beta of 0.32. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Grocery Outlet average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Grocery Outlet Holding will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Grocery Outlet Holding is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Grocery Outlet Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Grocery Outlet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grocery Outlet Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grocery Outlet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Grocery Outlet in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.3733.3335.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
29.0531.0136.44
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
26.0030.2242.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Grocery Outlet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Grocery Outlet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Grocery Outlet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Grocery Outlet Holding.

Grocery Outlet Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grocery Outlet is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grocery Outlet's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grocery Outlet Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grocery Outlet within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.35
β
Beta against DOW0.32
σ
Overall volatility
3.80
Ir
Information ratio -0.16

Grocery Outlet Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grocery Outlet for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grocery Outlet Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Grocery Outlet generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from www.sbsun.com: Whats new Walmart hiring 67 truck drivers, touts potential earnings of 110,000 - San Bernardino County Sun

Grocery Outlet Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grocery Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grocery Outlet's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grocery Outlet's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out7.77%
Short Percent Of Float9.69%
Float Shares88.15M
Shares Short Prior Month8.11M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.15M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.13M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Grocery Outlet Technical Analysis

Grocery Outlet's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grocery Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grocery Outlet Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grocery Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Grocery Outlet Predictive Forecast Models

Grocery Outlet time-series forecasting models is one of many Grocery Outlet's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Grocery Outlet's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Grocery Outlet Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Grocery Outlet for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grocery Outlet Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Grocery Outlet generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from www.sbsun.com: Whats new Walmart hiring 67 truck drivers, touts potential earnings of 110,000 - San Bernardino County Sun
Please check Grocery Outlet Backtesting, Grocery Outlet Valuation, Grocery Outlet Correlation, Grocery Outlet Hype Analysis, Grocery Outlet Volatility, Grocery Outlet History as well as Grocery Outlet Performance. You can also try Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Grocery Outlet Holding price analysis, check to measure Grocery Outlet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grocery Outlet is operating at the current time. Most of Grocery Outlet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grocery Outlet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grocery Outlet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grocery Outlet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Grocery Outlet's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grocery Outlet. If investors know Grocery will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grocery Outlet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Grocery Outlet Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grocery that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grocery Outlet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grocery Outlet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grocery Outlet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grocery Outlet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grocery Outlet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Grocery Outlet value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grocery Outlet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.