Fox Factory Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 102.63

FOXF
 Stock
  

USD 102.63  6.67  6.10%   

Fox Factory's future price is the expected price of Fox Factory instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Fox Factory Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of December 2, 2022, Price to Book Value is expected to decline to 7.75. In addition to that, Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to decline to 40.98.
  
Fox Factory's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Fox Factory Holding. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Fox Factory based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Fox Factory Holding over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $105.0 is a CALL option contract on Fox Factory's common stock with a strick price of 105.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-30 at 11:40:47 for $3.09 and, as of today, has 14 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $4.8, and an ask price of $8.7. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of December is 49.6086. View All Fox Factory options

Closest to current price Fox Factory long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Fox Factory Backtesting, Fox Factory Valuation, Fox Factory Correlation, Fox Factory Hype Analysis, Fox Factory Volatility, Fox Factory History as well as Fox Factory Performance. Please specify Fox Factory time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Fox Factory odds to be computed.

Fox Factory Target Price Odds to finish over 102.63

The tendency of Fox Factory Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 102.63 90 days 102.63 
about 8.46
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fox Factory to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 8.46 (This Fox Factory Holding probability density function shows the probability of Fox Factory Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.76 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Fox Factory will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0847, implying that it can generate a 0.0847 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Fox Factory Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Fox Factory

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fox Factory Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fox Factory's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Fox Factory in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
106.82110.28113.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
98.37140.46143.92
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
96.66100.13103.59
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
130.00180.00210.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fox Factory. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fox Factory's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fox Factory's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Fox Factory Holding.

Fox Factory Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fox Factory is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fox Factory's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fox Factory Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fox Factory within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.08
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.76
σ
Overall volatility
9.69
Ir
Information ratio 0.05

Fox Factory Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fox Factory for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fox Factory Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Fox Factory Holding has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Fox Factory Holding has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Fox Factory Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fox Factory Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fox Factory's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fox Factory's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding42366000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments179686000.00

Fox Factory Technical Analysis

Fox Factory's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fox Factory Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fox Factory Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fox Factory Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Fox Factory Predictive Forecast Models

Fox Factory time-series forecasting models is one of many Fox Factory's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Fox Factory's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Fox Factory Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Fox Factory for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fox Factory Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Fox Factory Holding has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Fox Factory Holding has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Please check Fox Factory Backtesting, Fox Factory Valuation, Fox Factory Correlation, Fox Factory Hype Analysis, Fox Factory Volatility, Fox Factory History as well as Fox Factory Performance. You can also try Probability Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Fox Factory Holding price analysis, check to measure Fox Factory's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fox Factory is operating at the current time. Most of Fox Factory's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fox Factory's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fox Factory's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fox Factory to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fox Factory's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fox Factory. If investors know Fox Factory will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fox Factory listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.17
Market Capitalization
4.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.18
Return On Assets
0.0913
Return On Equity
0.2
The market value of Fox Factory Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fox Factory that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fox Factory's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fox Factory's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fox Factory's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fox Factory's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fox Factory's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Fox Factory value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fox Factory's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.