Shift4 Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 49.38

FOUR
 Stock
  

USD 49.38  1.34  2.79%   

Shift4 Payments' future price is the expected price of Shift4 Payments instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Shift4 Payments performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Shift4 Payments Price to Book Value is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Shift4 Payments reported last year Price to Book Value of 17.61. As of 08/13/2022, Price to Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 2.65, while Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (70.23) .
  
Shift4 Payments' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Shift4 Payments. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Shift4 Payments based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Shift4 Payments over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $50.0 is a CALL option contract on Shift4 Payments' common stock with a strick price of 50.0 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-12 at 15:16:01 for $1.15 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.0, and an ask price of $1.45. The implied volatility as of the 13th of August 2022 is 52.0778. View All Shift4 options

Closest to current price Shift4 long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Shift4 Payments Backtesting, Shift4 Payments Valuation, Shift4 Payments Correlation, Shift4 Payments Hype Analysis, Shift4 Payments Volatility, Shift4 Payments History as well as Shift4 Payments Performance. Please specify Shift4 Payments time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Shift4 Payments odds to be computed.

Shift4 Payments Target Price Odds to finish over 49.38

The tendency of Shift4 Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 49.38 90 days 49.38 
nearly 4.91
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Shift4 Payments to move above the current price in 90 days from now is nearly 4.91 (This Shift4 Payments probability density function shows the probability of Shift4 Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.25 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Shift4 Payments will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2148, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Shift4 Payments Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Shift4 Payments

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shift4 Payments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shift4 Payments' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Shift4 Payments in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
45.3249.7654.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
44.4459.3663.80
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
49.8254.2658.71
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
69.0097.50115.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shift4 Payments. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shift4 Payments' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shift4 Payments' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Shift4 Payments.

Shift4 Payments Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Shift4 Payments is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Shift4 Payments' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Shift4 Payments, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Shift4 Payments within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.21
β
Beta against DOW2.25
σ
Overall volatility
6.10
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Shift4 Payments Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Shift4 Payments for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Shift4 Payments can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Shift4 Payments has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.53 B. Net Loss for the year was (23.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 278.4 M.
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Sizing Up Shift4 Payments - Seeking Alpha

Shift4 Payments Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Shift4 Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Shift4 Payments' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shift4 Payments' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out18.53%
Short Percent Of Float25.97%
Float Shares46.92M
Shares Short Prior Month11.64M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.15M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.19M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis

Shift4 Payments' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Shift4 Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Shift4 Payments. In general, you should focus on analyzing Shift4 Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Shift4 Payments Predictive Forecast Models

Shift4 Payments time-series forecasting models is one of many Shift4 Payments' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Shift4 Payments' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Shift4 Payments

Checking the ongoing alerts about Shift4 Payments for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Shift4 Payments help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Shift4 Payments Alerts

Shift4 Payments Alerts and Suggestions

Shift4 Payments has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.53 B. Net Loss for the year was (23.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 278.4 M.
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Sizing Up Shift4 Payments - Seeking Alpha
Please check Shift4 Payments Backtesting, Shift4 Payments Valuation, Shift4 Payments Correlation, Shift4 Payments Hype Analysis, Shift4 Payments Volatility, Shift4 Payments History as well as Shift4 Payments Performance. Note that the Shift4 Payments information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Shift4 Payments' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Shift4 Stock analysis

When running Shift4 Payments price analysis, check to measure Shift4 Payments' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shift4 Payments is operating at the current time. Most of Shift4 Payments' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shift4 Payments' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shift4 Payments' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shift4 Payments to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Shift4 Payments' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shift4 Payments. If investors know Shift4 will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shift4 Payments listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.28
Market Capitalization
5.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.44
Return On Assets
0.0126
Return On Equity
-0.072
The market value of Shift4 Payments is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shift4 that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shift4 Payments' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shift4 Payments' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shift4 Payments' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shift4 Payments' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shift4 Payments' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Shift4 Payments value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shift4 Payments' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.