Focus Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 36.54

FOCS
 Stock
  

USD 34.53  0.47  1.38%   

Focus Financial's future price is the expected price of Focus Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Focus Financial Partners performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Focus Financial Price to Book Value is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Focus Financial reported last year Price to Book Value of 4.99. As of 07/02/2022, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 357.97, while Price to Sales Ratio is likely to drop 1.85.
  
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Focus Financial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Focus Financial Partners. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Focus Financial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Focus Financial Partners over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $35.0 is a CALL option contract on Focus Financial's common stock with a strick price of 35.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-27 at 10:59:56 for $2.3 and, as of today, has 13 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.8, and an ask price of $1.0. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of July is 40.8887. View All Focus options

Closest to current price Focus long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Focus Financial Backtesting, Focus Financial Valuation, Focus Financial Correlation, Focus Financial Hype Analysis, Focus Financial Volatility, Focus Financial History as well as Focus Financial Performance. Please specify Focus Financial time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Focus Financial odds to be computed.
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Focus Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 36.54

The tendency of Focus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 36.54  after 90 days
 34.53 90 days 36.54  about 30.51
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Focus Financial to stay under $ 36.54  after 90 days from now is about 30.51 (This Focus Financial Partners probability density function shows the probability of Focus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Focus Financial Partners price to stay between its current price of $ 34.53  and $ 36.54  at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.19 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.61 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Focus Financial will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Focus Financial Partners is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Focus Financial Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Focus Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Focus Financial Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Focus Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Focus Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.9634.8137.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.0844.8947.74
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
34.1837.0439.89
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0077.3385.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Focus Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Focus Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Focus Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Focus Financial Partners.

Focus Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Focus Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Focus Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Focus Financial Partners, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Focus Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.13
β
Beta against DOW1.61
σ
Overall volatility
3.93
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Focus Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Focus Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Focus Financial Partners can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Focus Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Focus Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.advisorhub.com: Price Check RIA Aggregator Stocks Sinking Faster Than The Market at Midyear - AdvisorHub

Focus Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Focus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Focus Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Focus Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.80%
Short Percent Of Float4.31%
Float Shares57.51M
Shares Short Prior Month2.42M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day680.95k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month443.74k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Focus Financial Technical Analysis

Focus Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Focus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Focus Financial Partners. In general, you should focus on analyzing Focus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Focus Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Focus Financial time-series forecasting models is one of many Focus Financial's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Focus Financial's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Focus Financial Partners

Checking the ongoing alerts about Focus Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Focus Financial Partners help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Focus Financial Alerts

Focus Financial Alerts and Suggestions

Focus Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Focus Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.advisorhub.com: Price Check RIA Aggregator Stocks Sinking Faster Than The Market at Midyear - AdvisorHub
Please check Focus Financial Backtesting, Focus Financial Valuation, Focus Financial Correlation, Focus Financial Hype Analysis, Focus Financial Volatility, Focus Financial History as well as Focus Financial Performance. Note that the Focus Financial Partners information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Focus Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for Focus Stock analysis

When running Focus Financial Partners price analysis, check to measure Focus Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Focus Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Focus Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Focus Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Focus Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Focus Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Focus Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Focus Financial. If investors know Focus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Focus Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
89.52
Market Capitalization
2.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.36
Return On Assets
0.0377
Return On Equity
0.0593
The market value of Focus Financial Partners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Focus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Focus Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Focus Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Focus Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Focus Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Focus Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Focus Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Focus Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.