Five Below Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 109.49

FIVE
 Stock
  

USD 140.08  0.81  0.58%   

Five Below's future price is the expected price of Five Below instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Five Below performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Five Below Price to Earnings Ratio are projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Price to Earnings Ratio were at 31.90.
  
Five Below's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Five Below. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Five Below based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Five Below over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $140.0 is a CALL option contract on Five Below's common stock with a strick price of 140.0 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-12 at 15:53:37 for $3.8 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.6, and an ask price of $3.9. The implied volatility as of the 13th of August 2022 is 48.2092. View All Five Below options

Closest to current price Five Below long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Five Below Backtesting, Five Below Valuation, Five Below Correlation, Five Below Hype Analysis, Five Below Volatility, Five Below History as well as Five Below Performance. Please specify Five Below time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Five Below odds to be computed.

Five Below Target Price Odds to finish over 109.49

The tendency of Five Below Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 109.49  in 90 days
 140.08 90 days 109.49 
about 98.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Five Below to stay above $ 109.49  in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Five Below probability density function shows the probability of Five Below Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Five Below price to stay between $ 109.49  and its current price of $140.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.06 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.93 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Five Below will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Five Below is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Five Below Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Five Below

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five Below. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five Below's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Five Below in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
136.15139.99143.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
126.07174.59178.43
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
137.41141.24145.08
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
205.00237.00300.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Five Below. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Five Below's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Five Below's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Five Below.

Five Below Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Five Below is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Five Below's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Five Below, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Five Below within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.06
β
Beta against DOW1.93
σ
Overall volatility
8.75
Ir
Information ratio 0.001679

Five Below Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Five Below for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Five Below can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Five Below has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Five Below is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Five Below has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Dinesh Lathi of 184 shares of Five Below subject to Rule 16b-3

Five Below Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Five Below Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Five Below's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Five Below's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out9.25%
Short Percent Of Float10.51%
Float Shares54.41M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day908.71k
Shares Short Prior Month4.66M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.07M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Five Below Technical Analysis

Five Below's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Five Below Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Five Below. In general, you should focus on analyzing Five Below Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Five Below Predictive Forecast Models

Five Below time-series forecasting models is one of many Five Below's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Five Below's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Five Below

Checking the ongoing alerts about Five Below for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Five Below help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Five Below Alerts

Five Below Alerts and Suggestions

Five Below has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Five Below is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Five Below has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Dinesh Lathi of 184 shares of Five Below subject to Rule 16b-3
Please check Five Below Backtesting, Five Below Valuation, Five Below Correlation, Five Below Hype Analysis, Five Below Volatility, Five Below History as well as Five Below Performance. Note that the Five Below information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Five Below's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

Complementary Tools for Five Below Stock analysis

When running Five Below price analysis, check to measure Five Below's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Five Below is operating at the current time. Most of Five Below's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Five Below's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Five Below's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Five Below to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Five Below's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Below. If investors know Five Below will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Below listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.33
Market Capitalization
7.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.07
Return On Assets
0.0829
Return On Equity
0.26
The market value of Five Below is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five Below that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Below's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Below's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Below's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Below's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Below's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Five Below value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Below's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.