First Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.34

FCRD
 Stock
  

USD 4.34  0.02  0.46%   

First Eagle's future price is the expected price of First Eagle instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of First Eagle Alternative performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
First Eagle's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on First Eagle Alternative. Implied volatility approximates the future value of First Eagle based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in First Eagle Alternative over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on First Eagle's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-16 at 11:38:50 for $1.8 and, as of today, has 9 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.7, and an ask price of $2.0. The implied volatility as of the 7th of December is 194.9964. View All First options

Closest to current price First long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check First Eagle Backtesting, First Eagle Valuation, First Eagle Correlation, First Eagle Hype Analysis, First Eagle Volatility, First Eagle History as well as First Eagle Performance. Please specify First Eagle time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like First Eagle odds to be computed.

First Eagle Target Price Odds to finish over 4.34

The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 4.34 90 days 4.34 
about 14.04
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Eagle to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 14.04 (This First Eagle Alternative probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.29 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, First Eagle will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4859, implying that it can generate a 0.49 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   First Eagle Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Eagle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Eagle Alternative. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of First Eagle in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.224.399.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.244.8610.16
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.084.169.47
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
5.005.005.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Eagle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Eagle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Eagle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in First Eagle Alternative.

First Eagle Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Eagle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Eagle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Eagle Alternative, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Eagle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.49
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.29
σ
Overall volatility
0.51
Ir
Information ratio 0.1

First Eagle Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Eagle for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Eagle Alternative can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Eagle is way too risky over 90 days horizon
First Eagle appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
First Eagle Alternative currently holds about 10.93 M in cash with (32.43 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.37.

First Eagle Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Eagle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Eagle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding30109000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments16276000.00

First Eagle Technical Analysis

First Eagle's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Eagle Alternative. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

First Eagle Predictive Forecast Models

First Eagle time-series forecasting models is one of many First Eagle's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary First Eagle's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about First Eagle Alternative

Checking the ongoing alerts about First Eagle for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Eagle Alternative help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Eagle is way too risky over 90 days horizon
First Eagle appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
First Eagle Alternative currently holds about 10.93 M in cash with (32.43 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.37.
Please check First Eagle Backtesting, First Eagle Valuation, First Eagle Correlation, First Eagle Hype Analysis, First Eagle Volatility, First Eagle History as well as First Eagle Performance. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running First Eagle Alternative price analysis, check to measure First Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of First Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Go
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Go
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Go
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Go
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Go
Is First Eagle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Eagle. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Eagle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.82) 
Market Capitalization
130.3 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.062
Return On Assets
0.0377
Return On Equity
(0.16) 
The market value of First Eagle Alternative is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Eagle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Eagle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Eagle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Eagle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine First Eagle value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.