Ford Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.36

F
 Stock
  

USD 11.32  0.19  1.71%   

Ford's future price is the expected price of Ford instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ford Motor performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 4.75, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to 1.68.
  
Refresh
Ford's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Ford Motor. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Ford based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Ford Motor over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-08 CALL at $11.5 is a CALL option contract on Ford's common stock with a strick price of 11.5 expiring on 2022-07-08. The contract was last traded on 2022-07-01 at 15:59:55 for $0.2 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.19, and an ask price of $0.2. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of July is 44.8278. View All Ford options

Closest to current price Ford long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please check Ford Backtesting, Ford Valuation, Ford Correlation, Ford Hype Analysis, Ford Volatility, Ford History as well as Ford Performance. Please specify Ford time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford odds to be computed.
Apply Odds

Ford Target Price Odds to finish over 16.36

The tendency of Ford Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 16.36  or more in 90 days
 11.32 90 days 16.36  about 5.74
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford to move over $ 16.36  or more in 90 days from now is about 5.74 (This Ford Motor probability density function shows the probability of Ford Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between its current price of $ 11.32  and $ 16.36  at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.77 .
Taking into account the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.57 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ford will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Ford Motor is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Ford Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Ford

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ford Motor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ford's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ford in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.1111.1414.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.1414.1717.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
8.6211.6514.67
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
12.0019.0730.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ford. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ford's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ford's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ford Motor.

Ford Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ford is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ford's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ford Motor, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ford within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.33
β
Beta against DOW1.57
σ
Overall volatility
1.63
Ir
Information ratio -0.15

Ford Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ford for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ford Motor can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ford Motor generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ford Motor has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Ford Motor has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.investors.com: Dow Jones Futures Stocks Bounce But Still Fall Microns Good News, Hot Tesla Rivals On Tap - Investors Business Daily

Ford Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ford Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ford's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ford's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.86%
Short Percent Of Float3.18%
Float Shares3.94B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day62.46M
Shares Short Prior Month88.83M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month62.21M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Ford Technical Analysis

Ford's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ford Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ford Motor. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ford Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ford Predictive Forecast Models

Ford time-series forecasting models is one of many Ford's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Ford's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ford Motor

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ford for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ford Motor help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Ford Alerts

Ford Alerts and Suggestions

Ford Motor generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ford Motor has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Ford Motor has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from www.investors.com: Dow Jones Futures Stocks Bounce But Still Fall Microns Good News, Hot Tesla Rivals On Tap - Investors Business Daily
Please check Ford Backtesting, Ford Valuation, Ford Correlation, Ford Hype Analysis, Ford Volatility, Ford History as well as Ford Performance. Note that the Ford Motor information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ford's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Ford Stock analysis

When running Ford Motor price analysis, check to measure Ford's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ford is operating at the current time. Most of Ford's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ford's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ford's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ford to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Go
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Go
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Go
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
Is Ford's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ford. If investors know Ford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ford listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.25
Market Capitalization
44 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.048
Return On Assets
0.0227
Return On Equity
0.29
The market value of Ford Motor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ford's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ford's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ford's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ford's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ford's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ford value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ford's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.