National Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 51.14

EYE
 Stock
  

USD 29.25  0.19  0.65%   

National Vision's future price is the expected price of National Vision instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of National Vision Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 4.69. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 45.77.
  
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National Vision's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on National Vision Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of National Vision based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in National Vision Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $30.0 is a CALL option contract on National Vision's common stock with a strick price of 30.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-07-06 at 14:17:47 for $0.6 and, as of today, has 8 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.5, and an ask price of $0.9. The implied volatility as of the 7th of July is 49.7352. View All National options

Closest to current price National long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to National Vision Backtesting, National Vision Valuation, National Vision Correlation, National Vision Hype Analysis, National Vision Volatility, National Vision History as well as National Vision Performance. Please specify National Vision time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like National Vision odds to be computed.
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National Vision Target Price Odds to finish over 51.14

The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 51.14  or more in 90 days
 29.25 90 days 51.14  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Vision to move over $ 51.14  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This National Vision Holdings probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Vision Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 29.25  and $ 51.14  at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.21 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.46 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, National Vision will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. National Vision Holdings is significantly underperforming DOW.
 National Vision Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for National Vision

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Vision Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of National Vision in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
23.7828.7333.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
26.3337.4642.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
25.3530.2935.24
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0060.2570.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Vision. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Vision's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Vision's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in National Vision Holdings.

National Vision Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Vision is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Vision's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Vision Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Vision within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.24
β
Beta against DOW1.46
σ
Overall volatility
7.12
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

National Vision Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Vision for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Vision Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
National Vision generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
National Vision has high historical volatility and very poor performance
National Vision has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Top Research Reports for ConocoPhillips, SAP CSX - Nasdaq

National Vision Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Vision's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Vision's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out8.43%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.98
Short Percent Of Float9.51%
Float Shares76.24M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4M
Shares Short Prior Month5.87M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.84M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield10.43%

National Vision Technical Analysis

National Vision's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Vision Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

National Vision Predictive Forecast Models

National Vision time-series forecasting models is one of many National Vision's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary National Vision's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about National Vision Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about National Vision for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Vision Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

National Vision Alerts

National Vision Alerts and Suggestions

National Vision generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
National Vision has high historical volatility and very poor performance
National Vision has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Top Research Reports for ConocoPhillips, SAP CSX - Nasdaq
Continue to National Vision Backtesting, National Vision Valuation, National Vision Correlation, National Vision Hype Analysis, National Vision Volatility, National Vision History as well as National Vision Performance. Note that the National Vision Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Vision's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis

When running National Vision Holdings price analysis, check to measure National Vision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Vision is operating at the current time. Most of National Vision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Vision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Vision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Vision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Vision's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Vision. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Vision listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.28
Market Capitalization
2.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.012
Return On Assets
0.0405
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of National Vision Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Vision's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Vision's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Vision's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Vision's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Vision's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine National Vision value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Vision's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.