Etsy Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 78.78

ETSY
 Stock
  

USD 79.32  6.11  8.35%   

Etsy's future price is the expected price of Etsy instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Etsy Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is likely to rise to 47.64 in 2022, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop 47.75 in 2022.
  
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Etsy's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Etsy Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Etsy based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Etsy Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-01 CALL at $79.0 is a CALL option contract on Etsy's common stock with a strick price of 79.0 expiring on 2022-07-01. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-30 at 15:32:52 for $0.18 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.11, and an ask price of $0.17. The implied volatility as of the 1st of July is 101.8395. View All Etsy options

Closest to current price Etsy long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Etsy Backtesting, Etsy Valuation, Etsy Correlation, Etsy Hype Analysis, Etsy Volatility, Etsy History as well as Etsy Performance. Please specify Etsy time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Etsy odds to be computed.
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Etsy Target Price Odds to finish over 78.78

The tendency of Etsy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 78.78  in 90 days
 79.32 90 days 78.78  about 63.95
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Etsy to stay above $ 78.78  in 90 days from now is about 63.95 (This Etsy Inc probability density function shows the probability of Etsy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Etsy Inc price to stay between $ 78.78  and its current price of $79.32 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.27 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.8 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Etsy will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.046, implying that it can generate a 0.046 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Etsy Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Etsy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Etsy Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Etsy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Etsy in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
65.2970.8376.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
65.89119.79125.33
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
67.4873.0278.57
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
179.00260.65330.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Etsy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Etsy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Etsy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Etsy Inc.

Etsy Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Etsy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Etsy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Etsy Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Etsy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.04598
β
Beta against DOW2.80
σ
Overall volatility
8.99
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Etsy Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Etsy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Etsy Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Etsy Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Etsy Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Etsy Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Investors Will Want Etsys Growth In ROCE To Persist - Simply Wall St

Etsy Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Etsy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Etsy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Etsy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out11.09%
Short Percent Of Float12.56%
Float Shares126.05M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.29M
Shares Short Prior Month11.1M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.91M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Etsy Technical Analysis

Etsy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Etsy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Etsy Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Etsy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Etsy Predictive Forecast Models

Etsy time-series forecasting models is one of many Etsy's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Etsy's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Etsy Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Etsy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Etsy Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Etsy Alerts

Etsy Alerts and Suggestions

Etsy Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Etsy Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Etsy Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Investors Will Want Etsys Growth In ROCE To Persist - Simply Wall St
Continue to Etsy Backtesting, Etsy Valuation, Etsy Correlation, Etsy Hype Analysis, Etsy Volatility, Etsy History as well as Etsy Performance. Note that the Etsy Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Etsy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

Complementary Tools for Etsy Stock analysis

When running Etsy Inc price analysis, check to measure Etsy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etsy is operating at the current time. Most of Etsy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etsy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etsy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etsy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Etsy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Etsy. If investors know Etsy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Etsy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.4
Market Capitalization
9.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.052
Return On Assets
0.0875
Return On Equity
0.64
The market value of Etsy Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Etsy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Etsy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Etsy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Etsy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Etsy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Etsy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Etsy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Etsy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.