Essential Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.57

EPRT
 Stock
  

USD 23.55  0.27  1.16%   

Essential Properties' future price is the expected price of Essential Properties instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Essential Properties Realty performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Essential Properties Price to Book Value is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Essential Properties reported Price to Book Value of 1.72 in 2021. Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to gain to 36.90 in 2022, whereas Price to Sales Ratio is likely to drop 14.10 in 2022.
  
Essential Properties' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Essential Properties Realty. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Essential Properties based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Essential Properties Realty over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $22.5 is a CALL option contract on Essential Properties' common stock with a strick price of 22.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-30 at 09:38:23 for $0.5 and, as of today, has 12 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.15, and an ask price of $1.35. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 33.8406. View All Essential options

Closest to current price Essential long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Essential Properties Backtesting, Essential Properties Valuation, Essential Properties Correlation, Essential Properties Hype Analysis, Essential Properties Volatility, Essential Properties History as well as Essential Properties Performance. Please specify Essential Properties time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Essential Properties odds to be computed.

Essential Properties Target Price Odds to finish over 19.57

The tendency of Essential Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 19.57  in 90 days
 23.55 90 days 19.57 
about 89.57
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Essential Properties to stay above $ 19.57  in 90 days from now is about 89.57 (This Essential Properties Realty probability density function shows the probability of Essential Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Essential Properties price to stay between $ 19.57  and its current price of $23.55 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.63 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.01 suggesting Essential Properties Realty market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Essential Properties is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Essential Properties is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Essential Properties Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Essential Properties

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essential Properties. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Essential Properties' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Essential Properties in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
21.2523.2725.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20.9527.4029.42
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
27.0032.5036.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.311.321.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Essential Properties. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Essential Properties' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Essential Properties' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Essential Properties.

Essential Properties Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Essential Properties is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Essential Properties' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Essential Properties Realty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Essential Properties within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.0078
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.01
σ
Overall volatility
1.32
Ir
Information ratio -0.0034

Essential Properties Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Essential Properties for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Essential Properties can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Essential Properties has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 14th of October 2022 Essential Properties paid $ 0.27 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Realty Income Vs. Simon Property - Which Is The Better One - Seeking Alpha

Essential Properties Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Essential Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Essential Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Essential Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding96197705.00
Cash And Short Term Investments3210598000.00

Essential Properties Technical Analysis

Essential Properties' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Essential Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Essential Properties Realty. In general, you should focus on analyzing Essential Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Essential Properties Predictive Forecast Models

Essential Properties time-series forecasting models is one of many Essential Properties' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Essential Properties' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Essential Properties

Checking the ongoing alerts about Essential Properties for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Essential Properties help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Essential Properties has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 14th of October 2022 Essential Properties paid $ 0.27 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Realty Income Vs. Simon Property - Which Is The Better One - Seeking Alpha

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When running Essential Properties price analysis, check to measure Essential Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Essential Properties is operating at the current time. Most of Essential Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Essential Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Essential Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Essential Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Essential Properties' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Essential Properties. If investors know Essential will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Essential Properties listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.14
Market Capitalization
3.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.18
Return On Assets
0.0291
Return On Equity
0.058
The market value of Essential Properties is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Essential that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Essential Properties' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Essential Properties' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Essential Properties' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Essential Properties' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Essential Properties' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Essential Properties value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Essential Properties' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.