Emergent Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.62

EBS
 Stock
  

USD 12.15  0.38  3.23%   

Emergent Biosolutions' future price is the expected price of Emergent Biosolutions instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Emergent Biosolutions performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 11/30/2022, Price to Book Value is likely to grow to 1.99. Also, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 10.33.
  
Emergent Biosolutions' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Emergent Biosolutions. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Emergent Biosolutions based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Emergent Biosolutions over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Emergent Biosolutions' common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-29 at 11:18:57 for $0.25 and, as of today, has 16 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.35, and an ask price of $0.4. The implied volatility as of the 30th of November is 66.3047. View All Emergent options

Closest to current price Emergent long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Emergent Biosolutions Backtesting, Emergent Biosolutions Valuation, Emergent Biosolutions Correlation, Emergent Biosolutions Hype Analysis, Emergent Biosolutions Volatility, Emergent Biosolutions History as well as Emergent Biosolutions Performance. Please specify Emergent Biosolutions time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Emergent Biosolutions odds to be computed.

Emergent Biosolutions Target Price Odds to finish over 22.62

The tendency of Emergent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 22.62  or more in 90 days
 12.15 90 days 22.62 
about 20.94
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Emergent Biosolutions to move over $ 22.62  or more in 90 days from now is about 20.94 (This Emergent Biosolutions probability density function shows the probability of Emergent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Emergent Biosolutions price to stay between its current price of $ 12.15  and $ 22.62  at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.93 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.36 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Emergent Biosolutions will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Emergent Biosolutions is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Emergent Biosolutions Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Emergent Biosolutions

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Emergent Biosolutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Emergent Biosolutions' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Emergent Biosolutions in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.8110.9417.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.4324.2030.33
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
6.9113.0419.17
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0062.5075.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Emergent Biosolutions. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Emergent Biosolutions' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Emergent Biosolutions' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Emergent Biosolutions.

Emergent Biosolutions Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Emergent Biosolutions is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Emergent Biosolutions' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Emergent Biosolutions, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Emergent Biosolutions within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-1.15
β
Beta against DOW2.36
σ
Overall volatility
3.92
Ir
Information ratio -0.17

Emergent Biosolutions Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Emergent Biosolutions for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Emergent Biosolutions can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Emergent Biosolutions generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Emergent Biosolutions has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Emergent Biosolutions has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Emergent BioSolutions Receives Department of Defense Award to Evaluate Chikungunya Vaccine Candidate in Post-Approval Field Efficacy Study Using Model-Guided Approach - Marketscreener.com

Emergent Biosolutions Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Emergent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Emergent Biosolutions' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Emergent Biosolutions' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.07%
Short Percent Of Float6.45%
Float Shares44.77M
Shares Short Prior Month2.05M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day901.84k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month751.57k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022

Emergent Biosolutions Technical Analysis

Emergent Biosolutions' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Emergent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Emergent Biosolutions. In general, you should focus on analyzing Emergent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Emergent Biosolutions Predictive Forecast Models

Emergent Biosolutions time-series forecasting models is one of many Emergent Biosolutions' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Emergent Biosolutions' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Emergent Biosolutions

Checking the ongoing alerts about Emergent Biosolutions for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Emergent Biosolutions help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Emergent Biosolutions generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Emergent Biosolutions has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Emergent Biosolutions has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Emergent BioSolutions Receives Department of Defense Award to Evaluate Chikungunya Vaccine Candidate in Post-Approval Field Efficacy Study Using Model-Guided Approach - Marketscreener.com
Continue to Emergent Biosolutions Backtesting, Emergent Biosolutions Valuation, Emergent Biosolutions Correlation, Emergent Biosolutions Hype Analysis, Emergent Biosolutions Volatility, Emergent Biosolutions History as well as Emergent Biosolutions Performance. Note that the Emergent Biosolutions information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Emergent Biosolutions' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

Complementary Tools for Emergent Stock analysis

When running Emergent Biosolutions price analysis, check to measure Emergent Biosolutions' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Emergent Biosolutions is operating at the current time. Most of Emergent Biosolutions' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Emergent Biosolutions' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Emergent Biosolutions' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Emergent Biosolutions to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Emergent Biosolutions' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Emergent Biosolutions. If investors know Emergent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Emergent Biosolutions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.022
Market Capitalization
579.2 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.27) 
Return On Assets
0.0464
Return On Equity
0.036
The market value of Emergent Biosolutions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Emergent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Emergent Biosolutions' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Emergent Biosolutions' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Emergent Biosolutions' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Emergent Biosolutions' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Emergent Biosolutions' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Emergent Biosolutions value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Emergent Biosolutions' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.