Graftech Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.40

EAF
 Stock
  

USD 4.40  0.25  5.38%   

Graftech International's future price is the expected price of Graftech International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Graftech International performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Graftech International's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Graftech International. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Graftech International based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Graftech International over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $5.0 is a CALL option contract on Graftech International's common stock with a strick price of 5.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-23 at 15:36:45 for $0.08 and, as of today, has 27 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.15. The implied volatility as of the 24th of September is 55.753. View All Graftech options

Closest to current price Graftech long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Graftech International Backtesting, Graftech International Valuation, Graftech International Correlation, Graftech International Hype Analysis, Graftech International Volatility, Graftech International History as well as Graftech International Performance. Please specify Graftech International time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Graftech International odds to be computed.

Graftech International Target Price Odds to finish over 4.40

The tendency of Graftech Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 4.40 90 days 4.40 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Graftech International to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Graftech International probability density function shows the probability of Graftech Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.64 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Graftech International will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Graftech International is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Graftech International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Graftech International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graftech International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Graftech International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Graftech International in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1.014.387.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3.637.0010.37
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
15.0015.5016.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Graftech International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Graftech International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Graftech International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Graftech International.

Graftech International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Graftech International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Graftech International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Graftech International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Graftech International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.66
β
Beta against DOW1.64
σ
Overall volatility
0.88
Ir
Information ratio -0.21

Graftech International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Graftech International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Graftech International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Graftech International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Graftech International has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Graftech International has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.benzinga.com: The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz Announces Investigation of GrafTech International Ltd. on Behalf o - Benzinga

Graftech International Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Graftech Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Graftech International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graftech International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.26%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.12
Short Percent Of Float3.01%
Float Shares195.87M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.7M
Shares Short Prior Month6.09M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.22M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.49%

Graftech International Technical Analysis

Graftech International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Graftech Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Graftech International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Graftech Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Graftech International Predictive Forecast Models

Graftech International time-series forecasting models is one of many Graftech International's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Graftech International's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Graftech International

Checking the ongoing alerts about Graftech International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Graftech International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Graftech International Alerts

Graftech International Alerts and Suggestions

Graftech International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Graftech International has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Graftech International has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.benzinga.com: The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz Announces Investigation of GrafTech International Ltd. on Behalf o - Benzinga
Continue to Graftech International Backtesting, Graftech International Valuation, Graftech International Correlation, Graftech International Hype Analysis, Graftech International Volatility, Graftech International History as well as Graftech International Performance. Note that the Graftech International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Graftech International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

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When running Graftech International price analysis, check to measure Graftech International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Graftech International is operating at the current time. Most of Graftech International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Graftech International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Graftech International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Graftech International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Graftech International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graftech International. If investors know Graftech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graftech International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Graftech International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graftech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graftech International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graftech International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graftech International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graftech International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graftech International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Graftech International value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graftech International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.