Dril Quip Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.77

DRQ
 Stock
  

USD 23.58  0.52  2.16%   

Dril Quip's future price is the expected price of Dril Quip instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Dril-Quip performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Dril Quip Price to Book Value is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Dril Quip reported last year Price to Book Value of 0.78. As of 26th of November 2022, Price to Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 2.65, while Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (5.58) .
  
Dril Quip's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Dril-Quip. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Dril Quip based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Dril-Quip over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $22.5 is a CALL option contract on Dril Quip's common stock with a strick price of 22.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-21 at 12:01:20 for $2.1 and, as of today, has 20 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.3, and an ask price of $2.5. The implied volatility as of the 26th of November is 58.5293. View All Dril Quip options

Closest to current price Dril Quip long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Dril Quip Backtesting, Dril Quip Valuation, Dril Quip Correlation, Dril Quip Hype Analysis, Dril Quip Volatility, Dril Quip History as well as Dril Quip Performance. Please specify Dril Quip time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Dril Quip odds to be computed.

Dril Quip Target Price Odds to finish below 20.77

The tendency of Dril Quip Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 20.77  or more in 90 days
 23.58 90 days 20.77 
about 13.2
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dril Quip to drop to $ 20.77  or more in 90 days from now is about 13.2 (This Dril-Quip probability density function shows the probability of Dril Quip Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dril-Quip price to stay between $ 20.77  and its current price of $23.58 at the end of the 90-day period is about 47.39 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.28 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Dril Quip will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Dril-Quip is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Dril Quip Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Dril Quip

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dril-Quip. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dril Quip's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Dril Quip in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
19.9623.5427.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
19.3722.9526.53
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
19.5723.1626.74
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0024.3332.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dril Quip. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dril Quip's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dril Quip's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Dril-Quip.

Dril Quip Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dril Quip is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dril Quip's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dril-Quip, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dril Quip within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.12
β
Beta against DOW1.28
σ
Overall volatility
2.03
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Dril Quip Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dril Quip for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dril-Quip can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Dril-Quip has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Dril-Quip has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 343.17 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (62.73 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 80.59 M.
Dril-Quip has about 315.57 M in cash with (14.48 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.3.
Dril-Quip has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Is Dril-Quip, Inc. Trading At A 46 percent Discount - Simply Wall St

Dril Quip Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dril Quip Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dril Quip's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dril Quip's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.32%
Short Percent Of Float7.08%
Float Shares33.21M
Shares Short Prior Month1.65M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day261.37k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month239.28k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022

Dril Quip Technical Analysis

Dril Quip's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dril Quip Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dril-Quip. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dril Quip Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Dril Quip Predictive Forecast Models

Dril Quip time-series forecasting models is one of many Dril Quip's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Dril Quip's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Dril-Quip

Checking the ongoing alerts about Dril Quip for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dril-Quip help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Dril-Quip has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Dril-Quip has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 343.17 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (62.73 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 80.59 M.
Dril-Quip has about 315.57 M in cash with (14.48 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.3.
Dril-Quip has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Is Dril-Quip, Inc. Trading At A 46 percent Discount - Simply Wall St
Continue to Dril Quip Backtesting, Dril Quip Valuation, Dril Quip Correlation, Dril Quip Hype Analysis, Dril Quip Volatility, Dril Quip History as well as Dril Quip Performance. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Dril-Quip price analysis, check to measure Dril Quip's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dril Quip is operating at the current time. Most of Dril Quip's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dril Quip's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dril Quip's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dril Quip to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Portfolio Volatility
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Is Dril Quip's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dril Quip. If investors know Dril Quip will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dril Quip listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
799.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.062
Return On Assets
(0.0171) 
Return On Equity
(0.07) 
The market value of Dril-Quip is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dril Quip that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dril Quip's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dril Quip's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dril Quip's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dril Quip's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dril Quip's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Dril Quip value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dril Quip's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.