Dollar Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 175.0

DLTR
 Stock
  

USD 136.03  1.94  1.41%   

Dollar Tree's future price is the expected price of Dollar Tree instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Dollar Tree performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Dollar Tree's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Dollar Tree. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Dollar Tree based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Dollar Tree over a specific time period. For example, 2022-09-30 CALL at $136.0 is a CALL option contract on Dollar Tree's common stock with a strick price of 136.0 expiring on 2022-09-30. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-28 at 14:26:19 for $2.52 and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.99, and an ask price of $3.15. The implied volatility as of the 29th of September is 67.0853. View All Dollar options

Closest to current price Dollar long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Dollar Tree Backtesting, Dollar Tree Valuation, Dollar Tree Correlation, Dollar Tree Hype Analysis, Dollar Tree Volatility, Dollar Tree History as well as Dollar Tree Performance. Please specify Dollar Tree time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Dollar Tree odds to be computed.

Dollar Tree Target Price Odds to finish over 175.0

The tendency of Dollar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 175.00  or more in 90 days
 136.03 90 days 175.00 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dollar Tree to move over $ 175.00  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Dollar Tree probability density function shows the probability of Dollar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dollar Tree price to stay between its current price of $ 136.03  and $ 175.00  at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.37 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Dollar Tree has a beta of 1.0 suggesting Dollar Tree market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Dollar Tree is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.3832, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Dollar Tree Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Dollar Tree

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar Tree. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dollar Tree's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Dollar Tree in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
131.63133.97136.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
131.06133.40149.34
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
136.14138.49140.83
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
108.00144.62175.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dollar Tree. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dollar Tree's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dollar Tree's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Dollar Tree.

Dollar Tree Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dollar Tree is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dollar Tree's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dollar Tree, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dollar Tree within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.38
β
Beta against DOW1.00
σ
Overall volatility
2.87
Ir
Information ratio 0.21

Dollar Tree Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dollar Tree for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dollar Tree can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Dollar Tree generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from www.gurufocus.com: Brahman Capital Corp. Buys 3, - GuruFocus.com

Dollar Tree Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dollar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dollar Tree's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dollar Tree's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.32%
Short Percent Of Float2.77%
Float Shares221.55M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.86M
Shares Short Prior Month4.59M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.44M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

Dollar Tree's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dollar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dollar Tree. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dollar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Dollar Tree Predictive Forecast Models

Dollar Tree time-series forecasting models is one of many Dollar Tree's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Dollar Tree's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Dollar Tree

Checking the ongoing alerts about Dollar Tree for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dollar Tree help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Dollar Tree generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from www.gurufocus.com: Brahman Capital Corp. Buys 3, - GuruFocus.com
Continue to Dollar Tree Backtesting, Dollar Tree Valuation, Dollar Tree Correlation, Dollar Tree Hype Analysis, Dollar Tree Volatility, Dollar Tree History as well as Dollar Tree Performance. You can also try Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Dollar Tree price analysis, check to measure Dollar Tree's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar Tree is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar Tree's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar Tree's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar Tree's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar Tree to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Dollar Tree's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dollar Tree. If investors know Dollar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dollar Tree listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Dollar Tree is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dollar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dollar Tree's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dollar Tree's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dollar Tree's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dollar Tree's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dollar Tree's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Dollar Tree value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dollar Tree's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.