Duck Creek Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.85

DCT
 Stock
  

USD 11.85  0.03  0.25%   

Duck Creek's future price is the expected price of Duck Creek instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Duck Creek Technologies performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Duck Creek's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Duck Creek Technologies. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Duck Creek based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Duck Creek Technologies over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Duck Creek's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-29 at 12:56:59 for $0.5 and, as of today, has 18 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.45, and an ask price of $0.95. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of October is 86.6674. View All Duck Creek options

Closest to current price Duck Creek long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Duck Creek Backtesting, Duck Creek Valuation, Duck Creek Correlation, Duck Creek Hype Analysis, Duck Creek Volatility, Duck Creek History as well as Duck Creek Performance. Please specify Duck Creek time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Duck Creek odds to be computed.

Duck Creek Target Price Odds to finish over 11.85

The tendency of Duck Creek Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 11.85 90 days 11.85 
about 84.8
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Duck Creek to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 84.8 (This Duck Creek Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Duck Creek Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Duck Creek has a beta of 0.89 suggesting Duck Creek Technologies market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Duck Creek is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Duck Creek Technologies is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Duck Creek Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Duck Creek

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duck Creek Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Duck Creek's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Duck Creek in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.6511.9514.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.6719.3921.69
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
35.0041.3050.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Duck Creek. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Duck Creek's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Duck Creek's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Duck Creek Technologies.

Duck Creek Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Duck Creek is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Duck Creek's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Duck Creek Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Duck Creek within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.5
β
Beta against DOW0.89
σ
Overall volatility
1.44
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

Duck Creek Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Duck Creek for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Duck Creek Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Duck Creek generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Duck Creek is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 293.06 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (11.51 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 150.26 M.
Over 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.marketscreener.com: Duck Creek Technologies Focuses on Enhancing Distribution Channels and Speed to Market for Insurers with UK EMEA Expansion of Duck Creek Producer - Marketscreener.com

Duck Creek Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Duck Creek Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Duck Creek's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Duck Creek's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.99%
Short Percent Of Float4.29%
Float Shares68.19M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day690.67k
Shares Short Prior Month2.89M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month733.01k
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022

Duck Creek Technical Analysis

Duck Creek's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Duck Creek Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Duck Creek Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Duck Creek Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Duck Creek Predictive Forecast Models

Duck Creek time-series forecasting models is one of many Duck Creek's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Duck Creek's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Duck Creek Technologies

Checking the ongoing alerts about Duck Creek for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Duck Creek Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Duck Creek generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Duck Creek is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 293.06 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (11.51 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 150.26 M.
Over 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.marketscreener.com: Duck Creek Technologies Focuses on Enhancing Distribution Channels and Speed to Market for Insurers with UK EMEA Expansion of Duck Creek Producer - Marketscreener.com
Continue to Duck Creek Backtesting, Duck Creek Valuation, Duck Creek Correlation, Duck Creek Hype Analysis, Duck Creek Volatility, Duck Creek History as well as Duck Creek Performance. Note that the Duck Creek Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Duck Creek's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Duck Creek Stock analysis

When running Duck Creek Technologies price analysis, check to measure Duck Creek's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Duck Creek is operating at the current time. Most of Duck Creek's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Duck Creek's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Duck Creek's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Duck Creek to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Duck Creek's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Duck Creek. If investors know Duck Creek will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Duck Creek listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Duck Creek Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Duck Creek that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Duck Creek's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Duck Creek's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Duck Creek's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Duck Creek's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Duck Creek's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Duck Creek value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Duck Creek's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.