Carvana Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25.16

CVNA
 Stock
  

USD 21.87  0.71  3.14%   

Carvana Co's future price is the expected price of Carvana Co instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Carvana Co Cl performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Sales Ratio is expected to grow to 3.89, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to 121.97.
  
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Carvana Co's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Carvana Co Cl. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Carvana Co based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Carvana Co Cl over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-08 CALL at $22.0 is a CALL option contract on Carvana Co's common stock with a strick price of 22.0 expiring on 2022-07-08. The contract was last traded on 2022-07-01 at 15:59:52 for $1.62 and, as of today, has 5 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.55, and an ask price of $1.7. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of July is 138.9497. View All Carvana options

Closest to current price Carvana long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Carvana Co Backtesting, Carvana Co Valuation, Carvana Co Correlation, Carvana Co Hype Analysis, Carvana Co Volatility, Carvana Co History as well as Carvana Co Performance. Please specify Carvana Co time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Carvana Co odds to be computed.
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Carvana Co Target Price Odds to finish below 25.16

The tendency of Carvana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 25.16  after 90 days
 21.87 90 days 25.16  about 20.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carvana Co to stay under $ 25.16  after 90 days from now is about 20.0 (This Carvana Co Cl probability density function shows the probability of Carvana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carvana Co Cl price to stay between its current price of $ 21.87  and $ 25.16  at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.45 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.5 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Carvana Co will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Carvana Co Cl is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Carvana Co Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Carvana Co

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carvana Co Cl. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carvana Co's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Carvana Co in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
12.7821.8230.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
19.68108.87117.91
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
16.6525.6934.74
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
260.00370.75470.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carvana Co. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carvana Co's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carvana Co's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Carvana Co Cl.

Carvana Co Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carvana Co is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carvana Co's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carvana Co Cl, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carvana Co within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-1.7
β
Beta against DOW3.50
σ
Overall volatility
36.19
Ir
Information ratio -0.24

Carvana Co Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carvana Co for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carvana Co Cl can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carvana Co Cl generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Carvana Co Cl has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 14.07 B. Net Loss for the year was (359 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.93 B.
Carvana Co Cl currently holds about 663 M in cash with (2.66 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.36.
Carvana Co Cl has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Stephen Palmer of 5049 shares of Carvana Co subject to Rule 16b-3

Carvana Co Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carvana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carvana Co's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carvana Co's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out27.39%
Short Percent Of Float46.44%
Float Shares78.44M
Shares Short Prior Month16.97M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day11.78M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month11.33M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Carvana Co Technical Analysis

Carvana Co's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carvana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carvana Co Cl. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carvana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Carvana Co Predictive Forecast Models

Carvana Co time-series forecasting models is one of many Carvana Co's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Carvana Co's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Carvana Co Cl

Checking the ongoing alerts about Carvana Co for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carvana Co Cl help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Carvana Co Alerts

Carvana Co Alerts and Suggestions

Carvana Co Cl generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Carvana Co Cl has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 14.07 B. Net Loss for the year was (359 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.93 B.
Carvana Co Cl currently holds about 663 M in cash with (2.66 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.36.
Carvana Co Cl has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Stephen Palmer of 5049 shares of Carvana Co subject to Rule 16b-3
Continue to Carvana Co Backtesting, Carvana Co Valuation, Carvana Co Correlation, Carvana Co Hype Analysis, Carvana Co Volatility, Carvana Co History as well as Carvana Co Performance. Note that the Carvana Co Cl information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carvana Co's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

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When running Carvana Co Cl price analysis, check to measure Carvana Co's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carvana Co is operating at the current time. Most of Carvana Co's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carvana Co's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carvana Co's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carvana Co to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Carvana Co's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carvana Co. If investors know Carvana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carvana Co listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
3.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.56
Return On Assets
-0.0489
Return On Equity
-1.84
The market value of Carvana Co Cl is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carvana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carvana Co's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carvana Co's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carvana Co's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carvana Co's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carvana Co's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Carvana Co value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carvana Co's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.