Constellium Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 12.45

CSTM
 Stock
  

USD 12.45  0.66  5.60%   

Constellium's future price is the expected price of Constellium instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Constellium Nv performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is expected to hike to 8.79 this year, although the value of Price to Earnings Ratio will most likely fall to (107.84) .
  
Constellium's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Constellium Nv. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Constellium based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Constellium Nv over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-02 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Constellium's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-12-02. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-30 at 14:01:03 for $0.1 and, as of today, has 1 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.1, and an ask price of $0.25. The implied volatility as of the 1st of December is 47.1504. View All Constellium options

Closest to current price Constellium long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Constellium Backtesting, Constellium Valuation, Constellium Correlation, Constellium Hype Analysis, Constellium Volatility, Constellium History as well as Constellium Performance. Please specify Constellium time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Constellium odds to be computed.

Constellium Target Price Odds to finish over 12.45

The tendency of Constellium Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 12.45 90 days 12.45 
about 25.03
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Constellium to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 25.03 (This Constellium Nv probability density function shows the probability of Constellium Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.73 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Constellium will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Constellium Nv is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Constellium Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Constellium

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Constellium Nv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Constellium's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Constellium in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.3312.4516.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.8214.9419.06
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
8.6412.7616.88
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
21.0023.6025.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Constellium. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Constellium's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Constellium's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Constellium Nv.

Constellium Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Constellium is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Constellium's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Constellium Nv, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Constellium within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.73
σ
Overall volatility
0.98
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Constellium Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Constellium for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Constellium Nv can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Constellium Nv has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Constellium to Join the First Movers Coalition, Supporting the Aluminium Industrys Transition to Decarbonization - Marketscreener.com

Constellium Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Constellium Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Constellium's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Constellium's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding138740000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments205000000.00

Constellium Technical Analysis

Constellium's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Constellium Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Constellium Nv. In general, you should focus on analyzing Constellium Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Constellium Predictive Forecast Models

Constellium time-series forecasting models is one of many Constellium's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Constellium's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Constellium Nv

Checking the ongoing alerts about Constellium for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Constellium Nv help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Constellium Nv has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Constellium to Join the First Movers Coalition, Supporting the Aluminium Industrys Transition to Decarbonization - Marketscreener.com
Continue to Constellium Backtesting, Constellium Valuation, Constellium Correlation, Constellium Hype Analysis, Constellium Volatility, Constellium History as well as Constellium Performance. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Constellium Nv price analysis, check to measure Constellium's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Constellium is operating at the current time. Most of Constellium's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Constellium's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Constellium's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Constellium to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Constellium's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Constellium. If investors know Constellium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Constellium listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.35
Market Capitalization
1.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.27
Return On Assets
0.0418
Return On Equity
0.54
The market value of Constellium Nv is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Constellium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Constellium's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Constellium's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Constellium's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Constellium's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Constellium's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Constellium value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Constellium's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.