Cisco Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 44.76

CSCO
 Stock
  

USD 44.76  0.26  0.58%   

Cisco Systems' future price is the expected price of Cisco Systems instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Cisco Systems performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 26.04 this year, although Price to Book Value will most likely fall to 5.52.
  
Cisco Systems' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Cisco Systems. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Cisco Systems based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Cisco Systems over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-12 CALL at $45.0 is a CALL option contract on Cisco Systems' common stock with a strick price of 45.0 expiring on 2022-08-12. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-05 at 15:59:07 for $0.59 and, as of today, has 4 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.55, and an ask price of $0.58. The implied volatility as of the 9th of August is 22.6808. View All Cisco options

Closest to current price Cisco long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Cisco Systems Backtesting, Cisco Systems Valuation, Cisco Systems Correlation, Cisco Systems Hype Analysis, Cisco Systems Volatility, Cisco Systems History as well as Cisco Systems Performance. Please specify Cisco Systems time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Cisco Systems odds to be computed.

Cisco Systems Target Price Odds to finish over 44.76

The tendency of Cisco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 44.76 90 days 44.76 
about 47.51
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cisco Systems to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 47.51 (This Cisco Systems probability density function shows the probability of Cisco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.03 suggesting Cisco Systems market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Cisco Systems is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Cisco Systems is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Cisco Systems Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Cisco Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cisco Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cisco Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Cisco Systems in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
42.7845.0947.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
40.5253.5155.82
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
41.5543.8646.17
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
46.0061.6270.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cisco Systems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cisco Systems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cisco Systems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Cisco Systems.

Cisco Systems Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cisco Systems is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cisco Systems' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cisco Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cisco Systems within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.12
β
Beta against DOW1.03
σ
Overall volatility
2.24
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Cisco Systems Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cisco Systems for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cisco Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Cisco Systems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Cisco Systems is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 27th of July 2022 Cisco Systems paid $ 0.38 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Top 10 tech stocks to explore in August amid market upheaval - Kalkine Media

Cisco Systems Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cisco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cisco Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cisco Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date5th of July 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out0.91%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.49
Short Percent Of Float0.91%
Float Shares4.14B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day17.5M
Shares Short Prior Month42M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month23.79M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Cisco Systems Technical Analysis

Cisco Systems' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cisco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cisco Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cisco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Cisco Systems Predictive Forecast Models

Cisco Systems time-series forecasting models is one of many Cisco Systems' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Cisco Systems' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Cisco Systems

Checking the ongoing alerts about Cisco Systems for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cisco Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Cisco Systems Alerts

Cisco Systems Alerts and Suggestions

Cisco Systems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Cisco Systems is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 27th of July 2022 Cisco Systems paid $ 0.38 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Top 10 tech stocks to explore in August amid market upheaval - Kalkine Media
Continue to Cisco Systems Backtesting, Cisco Systems Valuation, Cisco Systems Correlation, Cisco Systems Hype Analysis, Cisco Systems Volatility, Cisco Systems History as well as Cisco Systems Performance. Note that the Cisco Systems information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Cisco Systems' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for Cisco Stock analysis

When running Cisco Systems price analysis, check to measure Cisco Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cisco Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Cisco Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cisco Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cisco Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cisco Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cisco Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cisco Systems. If investors know Cisco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cisco Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.076
Market Capitalization
186.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.002
Return On Assets
0.095
Return On Equity
0.3
The market value of Cisco Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cisco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cisco Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cisco Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cisco Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cisco Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cisco Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Cisco Systems value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cisco Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.