Costco Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 472.65

COST
 Stock
  

USD 483.02  1.60  0.33%   

Costco Wholesale's future price is the expected price of Costco Wholesale instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Costco Wholesale Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is likely to gain to 6.13 in 2022. Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to gain to 31.15 in 2022.
  
Costco Wholesale's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Costco Wholesale Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Costco Wholesale based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Costco Wholesale Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-09 CALL at $485.0 is a CALL option contract on Costco Wholesale's common stock with a strick price of 485.0 expiring on 2022-12-09. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-08 at 15:59:49 for $7.5 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $7.15, and an ask price of $7.6. The implied volatility as of the 9th of December is 91.4769. View All Costco options

Closest to current price Costco long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Costco Wholesale Backtesting, Costco Wholesale Valuation, Costco Wholesale Correlation, Costco Wholesale Hype Analysis, Costco Wholesale Volatility, Costco Wholesale History as well as Costco Wholesale Performance. Please specify Costco Wholesale time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Costco Wholesale odds to be computed.

Costco Wholesale Target Price Odds to finish below 472.65

The tendency of Costco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 472.65  or more in 90 days
 483.02 90 days 472.65 
about 14.53
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Costco Wholesale to drop to $ 472.65  or more in 90 days from now is about 14.53 (This Costco Wholesale Corp probability density function shows the probability of Costco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Costco Wholesale Corp price to stay between $ 472.65  and its current price of $483.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.91 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Costco Wholesale has a beta of 0.92 suggesting Costco Wholesale Corp market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Costco Wholesale is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Costco Wholesale Corp is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Costco Wholesale Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Costco Wholesale

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Costco Wholesale Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Costco Wholesale's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Costco Wholesale in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
480.20482.19484.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
454.52456.51529.56
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
385.00551.95650.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (11)
LowProjected EPSHigh
12.1312.6313.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Costco Wholesale. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Costco Wholesale's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Costco Wholesale's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Costco Wholesale Corp.

Costco Wholesale Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Costco Wholesale is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Costco Wholesale's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Costco Wholesale Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Costco Wholesale within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.18
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.92
σ
Overall volatility
22.77
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Costco Wholesale Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Costco Wholesale for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Costco Wholesale Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Costco Wholesale generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 10th of November 2022 Costco Wholesale paid $ 0.9 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Costco Previewing Q1 Earnings To Set The Tone For 2023 - Seeking Alpha

Costco Wholesale Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Costco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Costco Wholesale's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Costco Wholesale's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding444757000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments11049000000.00

Costco Wholesale Technical Analysis

Costco Wholesale's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Costco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Costco Wholesale Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Costco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Costco Wholesale Predictive Forecast Models

Costco Wholesale time-series forecasting models is one of many Costco Wholesale's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Costco Wholesale's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Costco Wholesale Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Costco Wholesale for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Costco Wholesale Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Costco Wholesale generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 10th of November 2022 Costco Wholesale paid $ 0.9 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Costco Previewing Q1 Earnings To Set The Tone For 2023 - Seeking Alpha
Continue to Costco Wholesale Backtesting, Costco Wholesale Valuation, Costco Wholesale Correlation, Costco Wholesale Hype Analysis, Costco Wholesale Volatility, Costco Wholesale History as well as Costco Wholesale Performance. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Costco Wholesale Corp price analysis, check to measure Costco Wholesale's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Costco Wholesale is operating at the current time. Most of Costco Wholesale's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Costco Wholesale's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Costco Wholesale's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Costco Wholesale to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Costco Wholesale's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Costco Wholesale. If investors know Costco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Costco Wholesale listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.117
Market Capitalization
213.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.15
Return On Assets
0.0789
Return On Equity
0.3055
The market value of Costco Wholesale Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Costco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Costco Wholesale's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Costco Wholesale's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Costco Wholesale's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Costco Wholesale's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Costco Wholesale's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Costco Wholesale value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Costco Wholesale's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.