Coherent Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 36.82

COHR
 Stock
  

USD 36.82  0.89  2.48%   

Coherent Corp's future price is the expected price of Coherent Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Coherent Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 11/27/2022, Price to Book Value is likely to grow to 1.88. Also, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 35.01.
  
Coherent Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Coherent Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Coherent Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Coherent Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $35.0 is a CALL option contract on Coherent Corp's common stock with a strick price of 35.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-23 at 14:18:09 for $3.1 and, as of today, has 19 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.8, and an ask price of $3.0. The implied volatility as of the 27th of November is 53.6824. View All Coherent options

Closest to current price Coherent long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Coherent Corp Backtesting, Coherent Corp Valuation, Coherent Corp Correlation, Coherent Corp Hype Analysis, Coherent Corp Volatility, Coherent Corp History as well as Coherent Corp Performance. Please specify Coherent Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Coherent Corp odds to be computed.

Coherent Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 36.82

The tendency of Coherent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 36.82 90 days 36.82 
about 57.8
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Coherent Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 57.8 (This Coherent Corp probability density function shows the probability of Coherent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.27 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Coherent Corp will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Coherent Corp is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Coherent Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Coherent Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coherent Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Coherent Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Coherent Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
32.7236.5340.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
33.1490.4494.25
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
215.00252.00273.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
6.306.306.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Coherent Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Coherent Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Coherent Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Coherent Corp.

Coherent Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Coherent Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Coherent Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Coherent Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Coherent Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.62
β
Beta against DOW1.27
σ
Overall volatility
5.79
Ir
Information ratio -0.16

Coherent Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Coherent Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Coherent Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Coherent Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Coherent Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Coherent Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Coherent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Coherent Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Coherent Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.92%
Short Percent Of Float5.74%
Float Shares104.52M
Shares Short Prior Month6.35M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.32M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.88M
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022

Coherent Corp Technical Analysis

Coherent Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Coherent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Coherent Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Coherent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Coherent Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Coherent Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Coherent Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Coherent Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Coherent Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Coherent Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Coherent Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Coherent Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Coherent Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Continue to Coherent Corp Backtesting, Coherent Corp Valuation, Coherent Corp Correlation, Coherent Corp Hype Analysis, Coherent Corp Volatility, Coherent Corp History as well as Coherent Corp Performance. Note that the Coherent Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Coherent Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for Coherent Stock analysis

When running Coherent Corp price analysis, check to measure Coherent Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Coherent Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Coherent Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Coherent Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Coherent Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Coherent Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Coherent Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Coherent Corp. If investors know Coherent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Coherent Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.61) 
Market Capitalization
6.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.69
Return On Assets
0.0299
Return On Equity
0.0214
The market value of Coherent Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Coherent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Coherent Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Coherent Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Coherent Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Coherent Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Coherent Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Coherent Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Coherent Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.