CNH Industrial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.07

CNHI
 Stock
  

USD 13.07  0.06  0.46%   

CNH Industrial's future price is the expected price of CNH Industrial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CNH Industrial NV performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current Price to Book Value is estimated to increase to 4.20, while Price to Earnings Ratio are projected to decrease to 12.53.
  
CNH Industrial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on CNH Industrial NV. Implied volatility approximates the future value of CNH Industrial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in CNH Industrial NV over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on CNH Industrial's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-11 at 09:30:55 for $0.6 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.4, and an ask price of $1.05. The implied volatility as of the 14th of August 2022 is 43.5948. View All CNH Industrial options

Closest to current price CNH Industrial long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to CNH Industrial Backtesting, CNH Industrial Valuation, CNH Industrial Correlation, CNH Industrial Hype Analysis, CNH Industrial Volatility, CNH Industrial History as well as CNH Industrial Performance. Please specify CNH Industrial time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like CNH Industrial odds to be computed.

CNH Industrial Target Price Odds to finish over 13.07

The tendency of CNH Industrial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 13.07 90 days 13.07 
about 45.28
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CNH Industrial to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 45.28 (This CNH Industrial NV probability density function shows the probability of CNH Industrial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.64 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, CNH Industrial will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. CNH Industrial NV is significantly underperforming DOW.
   CNH Industrial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CNH Industrial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CNH Industrial NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CNH Industrial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CNH Industrial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.9513.0816.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.9116.0419.17
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
9.7712.8916.02
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.0019.0022.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CNH Industrial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CNH Industrial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CNH Industrial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CNH Industrial NV.

CNH Industrial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CNH Industrial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CNH Industrial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CNH Industrial NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CNH Industrial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.14
β
Beta against DOW1.64
σ
Overall volatility
1.35
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

CNH Industrial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CNH Industrial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CNH Industrial NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CNH Industrial NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
CNH Industrial NV has high historical volatility and very poor performance
CNH Industrial NV has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: CNH Equipment Trust 2022-B -- Moodys assigns provisional ratings to CNH Equipment Trust 2022-B - Yahoo Finance

CNH Industrial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CNH Industrial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CNH Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CNH Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.93%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.14
Short Percent Of Float1.28%
Float Shares961.08M
Shares Short Prior Month13.06M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.32M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.8M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.07%

CNH Industrial Technical Analysis

CNH Industrial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CNH Industrial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CNH Industrial NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing CNH Industrial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CNH Industrial Predictive Forecast Models

CNH Industrial time-series forecasting models is one of many CNH Industrial's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary CNH Industrial's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CNH Industrial NV

Checking the ongoing alerts about CNH Industrial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CNH Industrial NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

CNH Industrial Alerts

CNH Industrial Alerts and Suggestions

CNH Industrial NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
CNH Industrial NV has high historical volatility and very poor performance
CNH Industrial NV has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: CNH Equipment Trust 2022-B -- Moodys assigns provisional ratings to CNH Equipment Trust 2022-B - Yahoo Finance
Continue to CNH Industrial Backtesting, CNH Industrial Valuation, CNH Industrial Correlation, CNH Industrial Hype Analysis, CNH Industrial Volatility, CNH Industrial History as well as CNH Industrial Performance. Note that the CNH Industrial NV information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CNH Industrial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for CNH Industrial Stock analysis

When running CNH Industrial NV price analysis, check to measure CNH Industrial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CNH Industrial is operating at the current time. Most of CNH Industrial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CNH Industrial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CNH Industrial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CNH Industrial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CNH Industrial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CNH Industrial. If investors know CNH Industrial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CNH Industrial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.21
Market Capitalization
18 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.18
Return On Assets
0.0384
Return On Equity
0.3
The market value of CNH Industrial NV is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CNH Industrial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CNH Industrial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CNH Industrial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CNH Industrial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CNH Industrial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CNH Industrial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CNH Industrial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CNH Industrial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.