Chipotle Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1515.20

CMG
 Stock
  

USD 1,515  6.37  0.42%   

Chipotle Mexican's future price is the expected price of Chipotle Mexican instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Chipotle Mexican Grill performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 95.49, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to 17.71.
  
Chipotle Mexican's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Chipotle Mexican Grill. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Chipotle Mexican based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Chipotle Mexican Grill over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-02 CALL at $1515.0 is a CALL option contract on Chipotle Mexican's common stock with a strick price of 1515.0 expiring on 2022-12-02. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-25 at 12:34:30 for $23.89 and, as of today, has 4 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $21.3, and an ask price of $23.5. The implied volatility as of the 28th of November is 28.1644. View All Chipotle options

Closest to current price Chipotle long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Chipotle Mexican Backtesting, Chipotle Mexican Valuation, Chipotle Mexican Correlation, Chipotle Mexican Hype Analysis, Chipotle Mexican Volatility, Chipotle Mexican History as well as Chipotle Mexican Performance. Please specify Chipotle Mexican time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Chipotle Mexican odds to be computed.

Chipotle Mexican Target Price Odds to finish over 1515.20

The tendency of Chipotle Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 1,515 90 days 1,515 
about 66.03
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chipotle Mexican to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 66.03 (This Chipotle Mexican Grill probability density function shows the probability of Chipotle Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Chipotle Mexican has a beta of 0.95 suggesting Chipotle Mexican Grill market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Chipotle Mexican is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Chipotle Mexican Grill is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Chipotle Mexican Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Chipotle Mexican

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chipotle Mexican Grill. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chipotle Mexican's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Chipotle Mexican in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1,3641,5221,524
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1,3641,5211,523
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
1,6051,6071,609
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
1,7251,9512,600
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chipotle Mexican. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chipotle Mexican's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chipotle Mexican's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Chipotle Mexican Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chipotle Mexican is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chipotle Mexican's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chipotle Mexican Grill, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chipotle Mexican within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.17
β
Beta against DOW0.95
σ
Overall volatility
91.86
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Chipotle Mexican Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chipotle Mexican for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chipotle Mexican Grill can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Chipotle Mexican generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Chipotle Mexican is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Investing in Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks - TheStreet

Chipotle Mexican Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chipotle Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chipotle Mexican's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chipotle Mexican's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.75%
Short Percent Of Float3.78%
Float Shares27.54M
Shares Short Prior Month1.05M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day223.74k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month299.53k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022

Chipotle Mexican Technical Analysis

Chipotle Mexican's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chipotle Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chipotle Mexican Grill. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chipotle Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Chipotle Mexican Predictive Forecast Models

Chipotle Mexican time-series forecasting models is one of many Chipotle Mexican's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Chipotle Mexican's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Chipotle Mexican Grill

Checking the ongoing alerts about Chipotle Mexican for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chipotle Mexican Grill help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Chipotle Mexican generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Chipotle Mexican is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Investing in Consumer Discretionary Sector Stocks - TheStreet
Continue to Chipotle Mexican Backtesting, Chipotle Mexican Valuation, Chipotle Mexican Correlation, Chipotle Mexican Hype Analysis, Chipotle Mexican Volatility, Chipotle Mexican History as well as Chipotle Mexican Performance. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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When running Chipotle Mexican Grill price analysis, check to measure Chipotle Mexican's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chipotle Mexican is operating at the current time. Most of Chipotle Mexican's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chipotle Mexican's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chipotle Mexican's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chipotle Mexican to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Chipotle Mexican's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chipotle Mexican. If investors know Chipotle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chipotle Mexican listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.28
Market Capitalization
42 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Return On Assets
0.0974
Return On Equity
0.35
The market value of Chipotle Mexican Grill is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chipotle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chipotle Mexican's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chipotle Mexican's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chipotle Mexican's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chipotle Mexican's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chipotle Mexican's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Chipotle Mexican value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chipotle Mexican's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.