Cheetah Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.57

CMCM
 Stock
  

USD 2.57  0.12  4.46%   

Cheetah Mobile's future price is the expected price of Cheetah Mobile instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Cheetah Mobile performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Cheetah Mobile's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Cheetah Mobile. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Cheetah Mobile based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Cheetah Mobile over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Cheetah Mobile's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-14 at 15:58:40 for $0.55 and, as of today, has 27 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.35. The implied volatility as of the 24th of September is 121.1529. View All Cheetah options

Closest to current price Cheetah long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Cheetah Mobile Backtesting, Cheetah Mobile Valuation, Cheetah Mobile Correlation, Cheetah Mobile Hype Analysis, Cheetah Mobile Volatility, Cheetah Mobile History as well as Cheetah Mobile Performance. Please specify Cheetah Mobile time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Cheetah Mobile odds to be computed.

Cheetah Mobile Target Price Odds to finish over 2.57

The tendency of Cheetah Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 2.57 90 days 2.57 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cheetah Mobile to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Cheetah Mobile probability density function shows the probability of Cheetah Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Cheetah Mobile has a beta of 0.63 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cheetah Mobile average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cheetah Mobile will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Cheetah Mobile is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Cheetah Mobile Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Cheetah Mobile

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cheetah Mobile. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cheetah Mobile's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Cheetah Mobile in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.132.517.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.101.966.96
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
1.521.521.52
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cheetah Mobile. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cheetah Mobile's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cheetah Mobile's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Cheetah Mobile.

Cheetah Mobile Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cheetah Mobile is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cheetah Mobile's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cheetah Mobile, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cheetah Mobile within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.42
β
Beta against DOW0.63
σ
Overall volatility
0.32
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Cheetah Mobile Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cheetah Mobile for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cheetah Mobile can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Cheetah Mobile generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Cheetah Mobile has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 784.62 M. Net Loss for the year was (353.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 526.96 M.
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: SEC charges Cheetah Mobiles CEO and its former president with insider trading - Seeking Alpha

Cheetah Mobile Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cheetah Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cheetah Mobile's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cheetah Mobile's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.04%
Float Shares40.18M
Shares Short Prior Month361.26k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day66.87k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month148.16k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Cheetah Mobile Technical Analysis

Cheetah Mobile's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cheetah Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cheetah Mobile. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cheetah Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Cheetah Mobile Predictive Forecast Models

Cheetah Mobile time-series forecasting models is one of many Cheetah Mobile's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Cheetah Mobile's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Cheetah Mobile

Checking the ongoing alerts about Cheetah Mobile for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cheetah Mobile help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Cheetah Mobile Alerts

Cheetah Mobile Alerts and Suggestions

Cheetah Mobile generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Cheetah Mobile has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 784.62 M. Net Loss for the year was (353.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 526.96 M.
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: SEC charges Cheetah Mobiles CEO and its former president with insider trading - Seeking Alpha
Continue to Cheetah Mobile Backtesting, Cheetah Mobile Valuation, Cheetah Mobile Correlation, Cheetah Mobile Hype Analysis, Cheetah Mobile Volatility, Cheetah Mobile History as well as Cheetah Mobile Performance. Note that the Cheetah Mobile information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Cheetah Mobile's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

Complementary Tools for Cheetah Stock analysis

When running Cheetah Mobile price analysis, check to measure Cheetah Mobile's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cheetah Mobile is operating at the current time. Most of Cheetah Mobile's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cheetah Mobile's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cheetah Mobile's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cheetah Mobile to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Cheetah Mobile's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cheetah Mobile. If investors know Cheetah will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cheetah Mobile listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Cheetah Mobile is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cheetah that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cheetah Mobile's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cheetah Mobile's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cheetah Mobile's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cheetah Mobile's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cheetah Mobile's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Cheetah Mobile value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cheetah Mobile's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.