China OTC Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Over 4.06

CIHHF
 Stock
  

USD 3.45  0.00  0.00%   

China Merchants' future price is the expected price of China Merchants instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of China Merchants Bank performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Continue to China Merchants Backtesting, China Merchants Valuation, China Merchants Correlation, China Merchants Hype Analysis, China Merchants Volatility, China Merchants History as well as China Merchants Performance. Please specify China Merchants time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like China Merchants odds to be computed.

China Merchants Target Price Odds to finish over 4.06

The tendency of China OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 4.06  or more in 90 days
 3.45 90 days 4.06 
about 68.51
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Merchants to move over $ 4.06  or more in 90 days from now is about 68.51 (This China Merchants Bank probability density function shows the probability of China OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Merchants Bank price to stay between its current price of $ 3.45  and $ 4.06  at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.31 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon China Merchants Bank has a beta of -0.54 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding China Merchants are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, China Merchants Bank is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. China Merchants Bank is significantly underperforming DOW.
   China Merchants Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for China Merchants

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Merchants Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of China Merchants in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.173.456.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.163.296.78
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.073.426.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.123.734.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Merchants. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Merchants' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Merchants' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in China Merchants Bank.

China Merchants Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Merchants is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Merchants' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Merchants Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Merchants within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.56
β
Beta against DOW-0.54
σ
Overall volatility
0.83
Ir
Information ratio -0.19

China Merchants Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Merchants for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Merchants Bank can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
China Merchants Bank generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
China Merchants Bank has high historical volatility and very poor performance
About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Rebound Called For China Stock Market - Nasdaq

China Merchants Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Merchants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Merchants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.25
Float Shares13.77B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day660
Average Daily Volume In Three Month940
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield36.31%

China Merchants Technical Analysis

China Merchants' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Merchants Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing China OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

China Merchants Predictive Forecast Models

China Merchants time-series forecasting models is one of many China Merchants' otc stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary China Merchants' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about China Merchants Bank

Checking the ongoing alerts about China Merchants for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Merchants Bank help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
China Merchants Bank generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
China Merchants Bank has high historical volatility and very poor performance
About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Rebound Called For China Stock Market - Nasdaq
Continue to China Merchants Backtesting, China Merchants Valuation, China Merchants Correlation, China Merchants Hype Analysis, China Merchants Volatility, China Merchants History as well as China Merchants Performance. Note that the China Merchants Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Merchants' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for China OTC Stock analysis

When running China Merchants Bank price analysis, check to measure China Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of China Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between China Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine China Merchants value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.